Chess · resolved market

Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4abc8d6c1d6c9ed784c3cdf47074d34069075821e0c2d7bba09f4a68f4533b8a

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 18, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $45,421
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $37,904

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,421 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Chess
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6727…2ac7backed Yes	4c	5,038$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.53	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x880c…440abacked Yes	15c	3,159$483 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$482.62	115	39.1%45 W · 70 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95d9…ab03backed Yes	4c	2,571$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.28	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	10cpaid	+161.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed Yes	7c	2,464$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.81	52	32.7%17 W · 35 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	4c	1,749$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.45	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+216.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	1,376$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.67	175	7.4%13 W · 162 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc550…353fbacked Yes	8c	1,316$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.30per pick	36cpaid	+31.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5260…fd71backed Yes	8c	892.23$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.86	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-38%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes	4c	731.97$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.99	123	13%16 W · 107 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5113…e446backed Yes	25c	590.49$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.41	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	27cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes	18c	576.89$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.76	74	41.9%31 W · 43 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35ee…4e1ebacked Yes	8c	520.2$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.82	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes	10c	520.13$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.99	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-2.7wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-75.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x116f…9210backed Yes	10c	408.01$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.01	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes	13c	399.8$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ccf…7afbbacked Yes	8c	375$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	+240.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5dd…7564backed Yes	7c	310$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes	4c	300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf2a…5d4abacked Yes	7c	285.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08a2…f2c2backed Yes	9c	269.99$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.1	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	6cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae30…d0a3backed No	79c	251.74$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.74	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x639e…a9d4backed Yes	4c	244$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	28cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed No	77c	217.36$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.36	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	+66%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f5b…864fbacked Yes	7c	214.29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaba…5c9ebacked Yes	5c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes	24c	176.67$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.63	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x241a…b2cfbacked Yes	10c	175.19$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.32	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd774…82cdbacked Yes	25c	167.18$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.7	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f39…8ad7backed Yes	9c	166.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca14…11bebacked Yes	25c	157.66$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.9	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+1.9wins	+0.12per pick	28cpaid	+117.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f76…b8e0backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.24per pick	26cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf15a…6df2backed Yes	25c	120.35$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf950…81d1backed Yes	11c	99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.99	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x555f…012bbacked Yes	12c	96.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.43	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fbc…b5c9backed Yes	26c	50$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.15	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	35cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd83…e959backed No	78c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.4	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+215.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event