Chess · resolved market

Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ebeb92cf02f58549d5d59454506c24b6fb94a761437ae76414f85e20c58bbfd

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 18, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $40,460
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $33,378

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,460 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Chess
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x95d9…ab03backed Yes	0c	12,000$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	10cpaid	+161.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	7,936$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.33	175	7.4%13 W · 162 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	3c	2,283$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.55	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+216.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed Yes	7c	2,049$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.69	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes	9c	1,727$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.29	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes	11c	972$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.38	123	13%16 W · 107 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes	3c	791.79$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.58	68	20.6%14 W · 54 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-60.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6727…2ac7backed Yes	3c	638.87$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.78	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Yes	5c	567.92$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.24	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd950…c09fbacked Yes	11c	500$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes	3c	494.65$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.84	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x880c…440abacked Yes	7c	234$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.92	115	39.1%45 W · 70 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes	6c	200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x555f…012bbacked Yes	11c	174.81$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed Yes	15c	113.51$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	+66%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60cd…4c3abacked Yes	13c	103.58$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.47	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	21cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb098…1038backed Yes	14c	71.6$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-80.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x992d…2dabbacked Yes	21c	53.31$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event