Chess · resolved market

Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3bdda6125cd69b93ed728ec62ebb512592154132aea5b2de7c87428b5b1712d

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 19, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $31,445
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $22,279

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,445 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Chess
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5113…e446backed No	78c	3,811$2,986 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$824.79	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	27cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	6c	2,255$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.28	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+216.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed Yes	9c	1,807$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.16	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6727…2ac7backed Yes	17c	1,771$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.55	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes	10c	1,534$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.04	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes	8c	1,327$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.61	123	13%16 W · 107 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95d9…ab03backed Yes	4c	1,152$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.09	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	10cpaid	+161.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	8c	1,130$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.15	175	7.4%13 W · 162 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd950…c09fbacked Yes	16c	1,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aa5…e01bbacked Yes	31c	815.91$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x977b…10d9backed Yes	15c	804.94$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.21per pick	13cpaid	+129.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ccf…7afbbacked Yes	11c	660.64$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.67	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	+240.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes	18c	611.68$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.3	52	23.1%12 W · 40 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccc9…7a15backed Yes	11c	574.05$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccb…0a10backed Yes	30c	570.57$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.17	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc236…fa9fbacked Yes	41c	528.1$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.34	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.32per pick	57cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes	6c	501.92$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	77	35.1%27 W · 50 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa791…bf23backed Yes	7c	499.97$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae30…d0a3backed Yes	31c	480.56$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9588…d801backed Yes	8c	443.98$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.52	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes	22c	377.55$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.57	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-2.7wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-75.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c8c…2e4bbacked Yes	10c	369.11$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.22	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…d651backed Yes	31c	322.58$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43ec…9282backed Yes	6c	296.81$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.81	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.16per pick	24cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc580…371ebacked Yes	8c	296.27$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.6	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.12per pick	28cpaid	+63%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed No	74c	260$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.9	74	41.9%31 W · 43 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec75…8786backed Yes	9c	250$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6ec…1dadbacked No	77c	248.75$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.46	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	63cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08a2…f2c2backed Yes	13c	219.99$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.7	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	6cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x880c…440abacked No	79c	203.93$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.87	115	39.1%45 W · 70 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+37.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked No	70c	199.99$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0fe6…7e61backed Yes	11c	182.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes	6c	179.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca14…11bebacked Yes	7c	155.29$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.87	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+1.9wins	+0.12per pick	28cpaid	+117.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	12c	151.4$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.58	61	37.7%23 W · 38 L	-6.0wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	17c	146.69$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	76	7.9%6 W · 70 L	-12.3wins	-0.16per pick	24cpaid	-66.8%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	20c	130$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.71	87	32.2%28 W · 59 L	-10.8wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf15a…6df2backed Yes	20c	92.27$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.45	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed Yes	28c	89.17$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	+66%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09df…c37bbacked No	77c	88.28$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.16	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa50f…84cdbacked Yes	18c	62.4$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes	22c	51.28$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.28	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No	70c	32.97$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.89	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ec5…9b88backed Yes	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event