TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Hans Niemann win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$161,962
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$144,154

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,962 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5113…e446backed Yes25c39,868$10,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,104.44714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-81.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked No73c20,000$14,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,4809247.8%44 W · 48 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No68c14,602$10,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,600.333330.3%10 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c5f…96b8backed Yes14c10,897$1,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,576.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaede…9d0ebacked Yes59c8,423$4,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed Yes15c6,381$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.455232.7%17 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc88d…1cb0backed Yes31c5,823$1,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,781.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43ec…9282backed Yes4c5,375$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.23540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid-20.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed Yes3c2,956$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.95358.6%3 W · 32 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid+21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes3c2,901$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.44175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick7cpaid+216.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No72c2,211$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.524639.1%18 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-20.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae30…d0a3backed Yes14c2,210$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes3c2,035$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3412313%16 W · 107 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x543f…9dafbacked Yes44c2,011$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c1,932$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.71757.4%13 W · 162 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-42.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x64ad…3050backed Yes12c1,812$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.612626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-40.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0ba…e7ebbacked No38c1,800$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,116.25147.1%24 W · 27 L+6.2wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+113.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes13c1,500$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.021040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-36%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf747…f687backed No42c1,272$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+139.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a3…db6ebacked Yes51c1,189$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.551241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf950…81d1backed Yes11c1,111$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes5c999.66$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.87911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-74.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6727…2ac7backed Yes8c993.91$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.673212.5%4 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes22c945.81$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.77441.9%31 W · 43 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfee3…58b2backed No59c872.22$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+384.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c7a…71a7backed Yes7c841.6$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd7…1778backed Yes61c817.26$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.731346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes55c798.23$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.173122.6%7 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-63.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89b5…ab4cbacked No73c744.66$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.295223.1%12 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes57c735$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.1620%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes3c702.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.384010%4 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc17…4254backed Yes58c700$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53e5…3a31backed Yes3c700$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.22020%4 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc104…a5c0backed Yes59c673$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd86d…648dbacked No73c609.98$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa56…f232backed Yes51c593.98$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes33c570.77$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.4611011.8%13 W · 97 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccc9…7a15backed Yes10c560$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes42c551.59$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234767.9%6 W · 70 L-12.3wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-66.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes14c521.25$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.992213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-75.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb04…8b8abacked Yes5c505.02$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273010%3 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+264.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf2a…5d4abacked Yes40c503.02$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95d9…ab03backed Yes3c500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.52015%3 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+161.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc236…fa9fbacked Yes60c500$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.94425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-64.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes58c494.81$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.4420%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09df…c37bbacked Yes41c459.08$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.19250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1838…5903backed Yes58c400$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.9714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-66.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd0…550abacked Yes4c380.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.34450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+59.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60cd…4c3abacked Yes8c379.58$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.78633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-17.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes60c371.66$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2b…2030backed No62c363.91$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.943138.7%12 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+26.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes40c349.5$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.381136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b7a…4817backed Yes11c333$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.631947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes39c324.29$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes60c301.13$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.6740%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e25…7a93backed Yes57c267.08$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08a2…f2c2backed Yes6c259.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.941513.3%2 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd703…b62ebacked Yes40c246.34$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.581050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes57c241.81$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.027735.1%27 W · 50 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-29.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5534…8f92backed No42c205$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+139.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked No73c200$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94ce…bdecbacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec75…8786backed Yes14c190$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.855324.5%13 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf15a…6df2backed Yes22c187.13$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.19616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd44f…c211backed No42c176$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+139.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Yes58c171.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-43.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x721e…372abacked No42c167$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+139.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5da1…980bbacked No42c165$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.06520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-52.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e60…95bfbacked Yes58c164$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb3b…7ca1backed Yes14c161.76$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed No76c160$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbea…484cbacked Yes25c154.7$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dbc…bb1abacked Yes14c153.07$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.352313%3 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a07…05c1backed Yes56c144.81$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-73.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Yes65c138$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.15955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca14…11bebacked Yes8c137.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111540%6 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+117.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa40…dee2backed Yes58c134$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f83…6cd9backed No38c126$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.592733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9019…42e0backed Yes57c123.41$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc677…9ed8backed Yes58c123$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16ea…c8f1backed Yes59c118.47$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a5d…725abacked Yes58c114.16$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes10c110$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.122133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes25c105$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4950%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes59c101.37$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x240b…c32abacked Yes60c100.07$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a79…304fbacked Yes58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc181…95d8backed No42c92.16$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+136.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93a8…0f96backed No42c92.03$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+136.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes14c91$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.643414.7%5 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-53.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86e3…fd0abacked Yes61c84.82$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27cc…3091backed Yes58c84$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b0b…80a0backed Yes58c80$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x995b…8081backed Yes58c68.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No71c67.15$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.531258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35ee…4e1ebacked Yes28c66.93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No66c66.4$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.74837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-47.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes61c65.9$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed No50c61.43$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.782100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+115.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5be6…64f9backed Yes49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.19850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.