Chess · resolved market
Will Hans Niemann win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4aabfbbf3e1eaa8898fca32eee19d90ba10a74d4ef1dd0d18a0b8746148d595b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $161,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $144,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5113…e446backed Yes | 25c | 39,868$10,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,104.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked No | 73c | 20,000$14,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,480 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 68c | 14,602$10,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,600.33 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…96b8backed Yes | 14c | 10,897$1,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,576.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaede…9d0ebacked Yes | 59c | 8,423$4,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 15c | 6,381$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.45 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc88d…1cb0backed Yes | 31c | 5,823$1,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,781.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…9282backed Yes | 4c | 5,375$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 3c | 2,956$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 3c | 2,901$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.44 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +216.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 72c | 2,211$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.52 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Yes | 14c | 2,210$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 3c | 2,035$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.34 | 123 | 13%16 W · 107 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked Yes | 44c | 2,011$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,932$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.7 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Yes | 12c | 1,812$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.61 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked No | 38c | 1,800$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.2 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 13c | 1,500$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…f687backed No | 42c | 1,272$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…db6ebacked Yes | 51c | 1,189$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…81d1backed Yes | 11c | 1,111$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 5c | 999.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…2ac7backed Yes | 8c | 993.91$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.67 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 22c | 945.81$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.7 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee3…58b2backed No | 59c | 872.22$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +384.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7a…71a7backed Yes | 7c | 841.6$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd7…1778backed Yes | 61c | 817.26$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.73 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 55c | 798.23$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.17 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked No | 73c | 744.66$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.29 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes | 57c | 735$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 3c | 702.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…4254backed Yes | 58c | 700$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…3a31backed Yes | 3c | 700$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc104…a5c0backed Yes | 59c | 673$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…648dbacked No | 73c | 609.98$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa56…f232backed Yes | 51c | 593.98$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 33c | 570.77$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.46 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 10c | 560$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 42c | 551.59$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes | 14c | 521.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…8b8abacked Yes | 5c | 505.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +264.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2a…5d4abacked Yes | 40c | 503.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d9…ab03backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc236…fa9fbacked Yes | 60c | 500$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes | 58c | 494.81$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…c37bbacked Yes | 41c | 459.08$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…5903backed Yes | 58c | 400$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…550abacked Yes | 4c | 380.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…4c3abacked Yes | 8c | 379.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 60c | 371.66$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…2030backed No | 62c | 363.91$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.94 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 40c | 349.5$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 11c | 333$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 39c | 324.29$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 60c | 301.13$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…7a93backed Yes | 57c | 267.08$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08a2…f2c2backed Yes | 6c | 259.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd703…b62ebacked Yes | 40c | 246.34$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.58 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 57c | 241.81$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.02 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5534…8f92backed No | 42c | 205$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 73c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…bdecbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…8786backed Yes | 14c | 190$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 22c | 187.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44f…c211backed No | 42c | 176$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 58c | 171.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721e…372abacked No | 42c | 167$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…980bbacked No | 42c | 165$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e60…95bfbacked Yes | 58c | 164$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3b…7ca1backed Yes | 14c | 161.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed No | 76c | 160$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…484cbacked Yes | 25c | 154.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…bb1abacked Yes | 14c | 153.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 56c | 144.81$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Yes | 65c | 138$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca14…11bebacked Yes | 8c | 137.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa40…dee2backed Yes | 58c | 134$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed No | 38c | 126$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.59 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9019…42e0backed Yes | 57c | 123.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc677…9ed8backed Yes | 58c | 123$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…c8f1backed Yes | 59c | 118.47$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5d…725abacked Yes | 58c | 114.16$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 25c | 105$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 59c | 101.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240b…c32abacked Yes | 60c | 100.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a79…304fbacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…95d8backed No | 42c | 92.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a8…0f96backed No | 42c | 92.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…fd0abacked Yes | 61c | 84.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27cc…3091backed Yes | 58c | 84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…80a0backed Yes | 58c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x995b…8081backed Yes | 58c | 68.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 71c | 67.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ee…4e1ebacked Yes | 28c | 66.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 66c | 66.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 61c | 65.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed No | 50c | 61.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be6…64f9backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hans Niemann win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?this page
- Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Bibisara Assaubayeva win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Dommaraju Gukesh win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Leinier Domínguez win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Levon Aronian win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?Yes won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Parham Maghsoodloo win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Ray Robson win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Samuel Sevian win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Vidit Gujrathi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Wesley So win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.