Chess · resolved market

Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb43ab85be4a29318f1a1abed175e78b01ee8ce8bf33c6d3373a1a12580b0e909

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 17, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $54,442
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $48,398

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,442 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Chess
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	2,198$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.13	175	7.4%13 W · 162 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x678b…101ebacked Yes	5c	2,023$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.77	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed Yes	4c	1,501$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.05	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95d9…ab03backed Yes	3c	1,500$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.5	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	10cpaid	+161.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x155c…1b09backed Yes	5c	1,111$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.55	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes	4c	1,016$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.56	123	13%16 W · 107 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6727…2ac7backed Yes	2c	958.55$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.52	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes	9c	816.48$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-2.7wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-75.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8be4…58d9backed Yes	6c	815.71$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.45	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca14…11bebacked Yes	6c	723.3$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.51	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+1.9wins	+0.12per pick	28cpaid	+117.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	5c	485.12$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.55	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+216.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	5c	480.56$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	76	7.9%6 W · 70 L	-12.3wins	-0.16per pick	24cpaid	-66.8%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xdac1…7249backed Yes	3c	372.66$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.18	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-72.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed65…b1b2backed Yes	4c	349.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-66%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes	6c	346.45$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.79	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08a2…f2c2backed Yes	4c	300$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	6cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes	6c	205.51$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	52	23.1%12 W · 40 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event