TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Levon Aronian win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$89,242
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,375

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,242 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x880c…440abacked Yes12c4,261$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,746.4911539.1%45 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes42c2,900$1,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,696.53330.3%10 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1838…5903backed Yes43c2,856$1,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,622714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-66.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed Yes3c2,576$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,507.93358.6%3 W · 32 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid+21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c2,379$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,315.941757.4%13 W · 162 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-42.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes2c2,362$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,317.99175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick7cpaid+216.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed Yes35c2,309$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,494.975232.7%17 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes46c2,109$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,137.634639.1%18 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-20.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa56…f232backed Yes55c2,064$1,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.16250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc236…fa9fbacked Yes70c1,621$1,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.2425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-64.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes18c1,589$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3063435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6727…2ac7backed Yes5c1,553$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,482.573212.5%4 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd7…1778backed No41c1,415$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.51346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1669…22efbacked Yes44c1,141$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.18333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43ec…9282backed Yes41c1,131$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.43540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid-20.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes5c881.49$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.1212313%16 W · 107 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7db…3199backed Yes43c772.37$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.371172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Yes40c766.52$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.919247.8%44 W · 48 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0ba…e7ebbacked No44c737.98$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.385147.1%24 W · 27 L+6.2wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+113.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes18c718$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.535223.1%12 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08a2…f2c2backed Yes10c599.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.491513.3%2 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccc9…7a15backed Yes19c589.08$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.07520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes10c573$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.13450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+294.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1dbb…050cbacked No80c539.24$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes36c520$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.627441.9%31 W · 43 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb04…8b8abacked Yes4c507.08$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.083010%3 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+264.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95d9…ab03backed Yes2c499.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.992015%3 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+161.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x977b…10d9backed Yes15c482.52$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.52333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+129.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfee3…58b2backed Yes13c471.9$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.912100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+384.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed No65c470.36$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.773122.6%7 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-63.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce5f…1f07backed No70c461.68$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Yes43c439$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.042100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+115.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca14…11bebacked Yes5c406.44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.441540%6 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+117.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes42c389.41$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.561216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-63%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes42c350$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.961040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-36%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes39c319.2$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.757735.1%27 W · 50 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-29.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ca…64dfbacked No58c317.01$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.1320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ccf…7afbbacked Yes5c306.12$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.12616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid+240.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50e6…e838backed Yes12c282$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.951127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick11cpaid+195.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a07…05c1backed Yes63c266.89$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.68616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-73.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x639e…a9d4backed Yes25c241.87$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.87837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick28cpaid-15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…4962backed Yes40c226$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+148.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75a3…5fd5backed Yes70c222.56$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0edd…3db1backed Yes21c221$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.081346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa19…fb67backed No58c212$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed No80c208.76$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1671127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick30cpaid+66%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No20c205$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4811011.8%13 W · 97 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes21c200$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.71323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Yes42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.81145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick24cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a2b…2030backed Yes11c199.2$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.863138.7%12 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+26.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c50…3f3fbacked No60c173$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7aa…261ebacked Yes40c164$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+148.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c33…f92fbacked No60c161$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1c9…bea4backed No60c150$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…d651backed Yes44c136.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf15a…6df2backed Yes18c119.4$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.11616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Yes43c116.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.283100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+95.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93b4…2486backed Yes10c113.59$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.06333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+228.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.74052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed No13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ee…cf2cbacked Yes43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.31631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b7a…4817backed Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.31947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d03…e8f7backed Yes40c94$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+148.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6d7…b646backed Yes33c93.08$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.27520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-39.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcea5…c747backed Yes75c90$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec75…8786backed Yes42c86.64$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.265324.5%13 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1867…549ebacked Yes43c81.01$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.01837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd774…82cdbacked Yes42c73.07$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.131030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd0…550abacked Yes22c67$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.57450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+59.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1074…b4dbbacked Yes17c65.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+197.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf63…bab2backed Yes40c64$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+148.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd83…e959backed Yes20c60.4$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.382100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+215.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x847e…235cbacked Yes30c60$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+66.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60cd…4c3abacked Yes34c60$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-17.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc62d…9dedbacked Yes44c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.731030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe80…0572backed Yes40c59$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+148.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5be6…64f9backed Yes45c58$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.07850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99c4…7e7ebacked No19c56.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Yes74c55$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.38955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…e2f8backed Yes44c50.05$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f83…6cd9backed Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.032733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b97…efcebacked Yes24c46.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+320.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x995c…8770backed Yes44c45.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+128.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d8d…ffbcbacked No60c43$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2de3…0d89backed No60c41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd32e…58c2backed Yes32c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+215.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f9f…0e3cbacked No60c38$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe60…6eadbacked Yes47c29.94$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.941723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-55.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1450…4589backed Yes42c28.37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+136.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a2f…587bbacked No66c28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x41f6…acdbbacked No60c17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fd2…1522backed No60c17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae8…0f43backed No60c16.87$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5da6…388fbacked No67c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.