Chess · resolved market

Will Dommaraju Gukesh win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x253d5e65e83a43c380e765330deb797b0eb216a9778b0f12107828a84590f22f

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 16, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $77,883
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $40,915

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,883 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Chess
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4fad…1480backed Yes	1c	8,589$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.67	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-85.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93c2…29f9backed Yes	1c	5,498$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.13	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	1c	4,592$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.64	77	35.1%27 W · 50 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaca…49e6backed Yes	0c	3,094$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes	2c	2,550$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.03	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78c5…1ecabacked Yes	1c	2,500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes	1c	2,481$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.25	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	+3.3wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	1c	2,248$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.95	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+216.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1074…b4dbbacked Yes	1c	1,093$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.41per pick	9cpaid	+197.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	35	31.4%11 W · 24 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ee…cf2cbacked Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	27cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…baf2backed Yes	1c	834.02$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.15	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf806…9762backed Yes	2c	722.85$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4895…0a83backed Yes	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.7	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3f1…b5ddbacked Yes	4c	260.52$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.48	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.39per pick	27cpaid	+77.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Dommaraju Gukesh win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event