Chess · resolved market
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea3d2ecb3879ce70c137a14be09e79f2f36b1540323f9115295d920e5476d341
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95d9…ab03backed Yes | 7c | 3,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 8c | 2,110$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.03 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +216.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Yes | 14c | 1,799$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes | 10c | 1,571$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.22 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…db6ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,500$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 10c | 1,344$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.3 | 123 | 13%16 W · 107 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,186$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.63 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 20c | 1,183$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.6 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…c09fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae0e…6527backed Yes | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 29c | 843.22$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.47 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d02…446abacked Yes | 14c | 728.57$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 29c | 724.77$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…d22dbacked Yes | 17c | 719.28$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 10c | 710$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked No | 67c | 650.36$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.66 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…2ac7backed Yes | 19c | 622.06$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.98 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Yes | 23c | 610$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.9 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 28c | 600$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfd…1be9backed Yes | 33c | 582.86$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked Yes | 41c | 502.03$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…baf2backed Yes | 10c | 492.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 25c | 402.25$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.56 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked No | 71c | 350$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5260…fd71backed Yes | 19c | 349.26$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 27c | 342$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.88 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9588…d801backed Yes | 9c | 333$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed Yes | 12c | 327.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 322$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes | 14c | 287.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 71c | 272.07$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 69c | 250.36$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed Yes | 8c | 211.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…cac9backed Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8c…2e4bbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea8…b7a8backed Yes | 10c | 194.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197e…fb48backed Yes | 10c | 178.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccf…7afbbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +240.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…ea8dbacked Yes | 16c | 151.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 10c | 142.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 140.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 133.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29fd…de15backed Yes | 10c | 126.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 32c | 113$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35ee…4e1ebacked Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Yes | 35c | 103.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca14…11bebacked Yes | 29c | 102.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…5903backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe75…b5c0backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…012dbacked Yes | 12c | 99.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…484cbacked Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee48…310bbacked Yes | 33c | 76.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…235cbacked Yes | 23c | 63.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 41c | 60.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0edd…3db1backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe60…6eadbacked Yes | 34c | 59.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b36…b940backed Yes | 33c | 59.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdce…c141backed Yes | 44c | 55.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe05…494dbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…2dabbacked Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe408…232bbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…b5c9backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?this page
- Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Bibisara Assaubayeva win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Dommaraju Gukesh win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Hans Niemann win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Leinier Domínguez win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Levon Aronian win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?Yes won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Parham Maghsoodloo win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Ray Robson win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Samuel Sevian win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Vidit Gujrathi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
- Will Wesley So win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.