TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,903
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,273

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,903 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x95d9…ab03backed Yes2c6,250$98 inLost-$98.252015%3 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+161.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes3c2,771$93 inLost-$93.23175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick7cpaid+216.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,756$35 inLost-$35.211757.4%13 W · 162 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-42.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Yes1c2,222$22 inLost-$22.225147.1%24 W · 27 L+6.2wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+113.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes3c1,000$31 inLost-$314010%4 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x08a2…f2c2backed Yes3c599.99$19 inLost-$191513.3%2 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43ec…9282backed Yes4c407.94$18 inLost-$17.55540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid-20.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes4c300$13 inLost-$12.650%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.