Champions League · resolved market
Will PSG beat Real Madrid in Regulation Time?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f765135900ef2bf44cad28d8b5d13be8ce06357b4dbc8b9a3b061a95a582c40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 59c | 499.99$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.99 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Yes | 41c | 443.69$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.62 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed No | 56c | 196.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.14 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 43c | 98.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x692e…5ad4backed Yes | 41c | 76.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Yes | 40c | 71.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…fdd1backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 43c | 29.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8e…c096backed No | 57c | 29.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked No | 53c | 29.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…9a61backed Yes | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef7…bd03backed No | 56c | 22.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PSG beat Real Madrid in Regulation Time?this page
- Will PSG beat Real Madrid in Extra Time?No won
- Will Real Madrid beat PSG in Extra Time?No won
- Will Real Madrid beat PSG in Penalties?No won
- Will Real Madrid beat PSG in Regulation Time?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.