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Tennis · resolved market

French Open: Musetti vs. Alcaraz

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Alcarazof Musetti, Alcaraz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,798,789
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,035,816

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,798,789 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x15e0…8d86backed Musetti29c423,038$123,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123,078.662030%6 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-38.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Musetti14c221,499$31,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,611.316242%68 W · 94 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Alcaraz73c182,102$132,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,858.754040%16 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Musetti14c100,254$14,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,310.561,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Musetti13c87,263$11,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,444.4214345.5%65 W · 78 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e11…9bacbacked Alcaraz73c46,669$34,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,393.83050%15 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+31%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Musetti19c26,444$5,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,073.612657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Musetti13c25,815$3,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,455.3613934.5%48 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45c3…42f9backed Alcaraz77c23,836$18,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,536.383655.6%20 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Alcaraz77c14,985$11,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,425.081,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Musetti23c13,399$3,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,053.238231.7%26 W · 56 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Musetti13c12,453$1,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,618.939652.1%50 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Musetti13c11,615$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.9239144.2%173 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Alcaraz75c10,469$7,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,593.25545.5%25 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2873…ad0abacked Musetti14c10,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4001457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8806…6a9bbacked Musetti13c10,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.951844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed Musetti25c9,429$2,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,337.523933.3%13 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Musetti26c8,170$2,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,153.5810046%46 W · 54 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbba2…5172backed Musetti33c6,209$2,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,025.811414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b2…d4d4backed Musetti9c5,492$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Musetti14c5,000$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.9822737.4%85 W · 142 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e7a…6f28backed Alcaraz72c4,980$3,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,396.22737%10 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Musetti13c4,736$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.6895140.1%381 W · 570 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2cd…bb91backed Alcaraz78c4,432$3,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.074757.4%27 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Musetti40c4,389$1,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,755.7260753.7%326 W · 281 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Musetti14c4,237$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.846530.8%20 W · 45 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-40.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Musetti13c4,232$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.1664955.2%358 W · 291 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cc…a23abacked Musetti12c4,000$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.83215.6%5 W · 27 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-66.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed Musetti14c3,788$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.2812231.1%38 W · 84 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Alcaraz80c3,315$2,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.626039.2%102 W · 158 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf22e…f52cbacked Alcaraz61c3,266$2,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,262.735525.5%14 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Musetti13c2,861$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.9313245.5%60 W · 72 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Musetti39c2,793$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.986527.7%18 W · 47 L-10.7wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-33.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked Alcaraz70c2,782$1,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.5525244.4%112 W · 140 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Musetti13c2,758$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.5355143.4%239 W · 312 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd78d…d896backed Alcaraz71c2,553$1,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33b2…3d6fbacked Alcaraz77c2,340$1,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf3c…f5ffbacked Alcaraz63c1,962$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.1611859.3%70 W · 48 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Musetti19c1,868$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.323016.7%5 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-54.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed Alcaraz73c1,835$1,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.1813844.2%61 W · 77 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Musetti14c1,815$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.351,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbaca…49e6backed Alcaraz79c1,742$1,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.476835.3%24 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ef0…657ebacked Musetti25c1,641$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.091127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x366c…6578backed Alcaraz68c1,600$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5143265.6%21 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+36.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x83c8…5d9ebacked Alcaraz63c1,587$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.33151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x898b…8d76backed Musetti25c1,506$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.77028.6%20 W · 50 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Alcaraz70c1,500$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44581938.9%319 W · 500 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcad4…1a4cbacked Alcaraz64c1,500$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5451540%6 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-25.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1925…1ddbbacked Alcaraz78c1,500$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf094…6fd5backed Alcaraz79c1,489$1,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.031450%7 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Musetti13c1,443$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.2522021.8%48 W · 172 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Alcaraz77c1,392$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.662952.1%328 W · 301 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5976…91f9backed Musetti13c1,332$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.661921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Alcaraz69c1,306$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.451,44848.8%707 W · 741 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf889…ea51backed Alcaraz77c1,293$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4707…7e5bbacked Musetti8c1,260$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2240%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe411…04c5backed Musetti12c1,223$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.76136.1%22 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Musetti14c1,151$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.3628043.2%121 W · 159 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Musetti14c1,047$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.516535.4%23 W · 42 L-0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed Alcaraz62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3801471.4%10 W · 4 L+4.9wins+0.35per pick37cpaid+178.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x19b8…612abacked Musetti14c914.29$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1283435.3%12 W · 22 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-36.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe24e…350cbacked Musetti14c857.14$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x39c2…d478backed Alcaraz75c806.57$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.641952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Musetti13c775$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7529636.8%109 W · 187 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd483…756dbacked Alcaraz77c770.13$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.133243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Musetti21c720$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.467331.5%212 W · 461 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fef…cdcbbacked Musetti33c703.1$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a6…aac8backed Musetti40c655$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2624233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Alcaraz75c631.14$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.331,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed Musetti34c594.02$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.22366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cee…b72abacked Musetti14c577.3$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.821040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c80…a608backed Musetti18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902927.6%8 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3013…e5b2backed Alcaraz62c453.85$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.8540644.1%179 W · 227 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29de…02aabacked Alcaraz60c453.53$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.4112752%66 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x664b…a286backed Musetti13c400$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c65…845dbacked Musetti14c390.29$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.641346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbaa…cbeabacked Alcaraz66c378.97$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.97771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+35.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbbc1…9be6backed Musetti14c362.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6270%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a62…57cabacked Alcaraz73c345.19$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.813540%14 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3d7…7504backed Musetti36c341.21$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.431145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5c0…8ea1backed Musetti14c336.93$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.172412.5%3 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa470…465abacked Musetti14c329.43$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.12425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd60d…57bfbacked Alcaraz74c319.11$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.432516%4 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-74.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3124…014bbacked Musetti13c314.46$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.792030%6 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-30.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x939f…2865backed Musetti33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd574…425dbacked Musetti18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-69.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Alcaraz63c300$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1115219.2%10 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-59.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e85…1ccdbacked Musetti21c273.62$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.292123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7eee…b4b2backed Alcaraz72c265$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.352864.3%18 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdda3…b20cbacked Musetti19c261.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6912147.1%57 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x383a…ff11backed Musetti39c257.18$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-46.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Musetti14c253$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.271,24533.9%422 W · 823 L-5.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe082…91f8backed Musetti21c250$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+80.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e42…9003backed Musetti15c246.93$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.042138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-34.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Musetti13c237.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dd8…12fcbacked Alcaraz60c230$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.361250%6 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7703…34b9backed Musetti14c222$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.081136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-43.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69bb…0f5cbacked Alcaraz63c215.11$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.591241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcad…3932backed Alcaraz64c209.3$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.35933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-48%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Alcaraz80c200.3$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.881,05655.4%585 W · 471 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.