World Politics · resolved market
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 5-8%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d7bb6909fed3b5f5df4c0bb7ad5dd4e77345433f124ec09ecd5e7cb305d4150
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $905,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $718,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $905,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 199 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc2d…8cd1backed Yes | 10c | 89,443$8,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,885.34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +201.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 66c | 32,013$21,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,833.67 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1707…93c4backed No | 27c | 20,900$5,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,235.02 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8c…e710backed Yes | 21c | 19,243$4,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,107.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218f…7ef2backed Yes | 43c | 17,227$7,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,456.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked Yes | 30c | 17,136$5,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,106.72 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 9c | 16,310$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.5 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked Yes | 25c | 15,834$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,900 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 23cpaid | +391.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 14c | 14,980$2,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,161.75 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9968…a104backed No | 51c | 14,873$7,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,349.25 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…5353backed Yes | 44c | 14,685$6,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,422.55 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes | 40c | 12,459$5,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,041.34 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 15c | 11,755$1,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,727.09 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372a…7201backed Yes | 0c | 11,684$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…54afbacked Yes | 2c | 11,601$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.58 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 6c | 11,556$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.34 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…e4bdbacked Yes | 11c | 10,802$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.25 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked Yes | 34c | 10,351$3,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,513.03 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…3e1dbacked Yes | 12c | 9,967$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.86 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…3622backed Yes | 5c | 9,878$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.42 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7a…201abacked Yes | 11c | 9,184$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.79 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 76c | 8,186$6,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,217.78 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +240.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf47d…f295backed Yes | 10c | 8,023$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +360.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 61c | 7,727$4,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,727.57 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…d0f3backed Yes | 4c | 6,762$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 78c | 6,702$5,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,242.6 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…b6f7backed Yes | 50c | 6,593$3,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,292.25 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 30c | 6,552$1,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,965.72 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcce…3e55backed Yes | 2c | 6,305$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 12cpaid | +724.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…a348backed Yes | 30c | 5,602$1,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,706.65 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 22c | 5,477$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.41 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 5,110$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,069.47 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 50c | 5,000$2,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,485 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…e7b1backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 9c | 5,000$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.28 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…db7cbacked Yes | 12c | 5,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 8c | 4,957$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.16 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…a2d2backed Yes | 10c | 4,942$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.97 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 4c | 4,857$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.94 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d9…e5d1backed Yes | 33c | 4,806$1,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,573.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18d…9863backed Yes | 12c | 4,413$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.96 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked No | 64c | 4,373$2,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,588.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 29cpaid | +75%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes | 11c | 4,100$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.5 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9389…aaffbacked Yes | 0c | 4,051$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 2cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +599.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 7c | 4,000$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.85 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Yes | 72c | 3,768$2,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700.93 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…eed6backed No | 66c | 3,741$2,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.1 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 15c | 3,518$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.58 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes | 7c | 3,494$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.11 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 9c | 3,168$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.37 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 2c | 3,081$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 20c | 2,784$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.37 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae7…1884backed Yes | 12c | 2,765$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.8 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…cebebacked Yes | 38c | 2,760$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.74 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…5553backed Yes | 65c | 2,737$1,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,791.61 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd956…c217backed Yes | 15c | 2,701$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 5c | 2,674$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.83 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…a4edbacked Yes | 14c | 2,600$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.71 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3b…f625backed Yes | 11c | 2,439$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd241…2a86backed Yes | 70c | 2,400$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…e790backed Yes | 13c | 2,331$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 23c | 2,273$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.12 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca62…fbfabacked Yes | 31c | 2,062$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.42 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 70c | 2,046$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.6 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 2,011$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.06 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0c…ad7cbacked No | 29c | 2,000$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,421 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 12c | 1,982$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.82 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.27per pick | 8cpaid | +854.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5be1…e799backed Yes | 17c | 1,948$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c5…ecd4backed Yes | 9c | 1,948$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 1,885$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.88 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 63c | 1,755$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.19 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 8c | 1,700$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.6 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcd…b1b3backed Yes | 12c | 1,618$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 8c | 1,558$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.33 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…d383backed Yes | 15c | 1,504$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.89 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d12…caa9backed Yes | 28c | 1,500$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.49 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa50…8756backed Yes | 25c | 1,500$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 12c | 1,500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9960…43c1backed Yes | 60c | 1,484$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +231.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…3a15backed Yes | 12c | 1,431$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.96 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x956f…e875backed Yes | 14c | 1,429$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 28c | 1,383$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.93 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x140f…c7c1backed Yes | 6c | 1,354$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 70c | 1,339$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.13 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed Yes | 50c | 1,196$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.2 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59dd…0708backed Yes | 9c | 1,176$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.40per pick | 20cpaid | +216.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…4017backed Yes | 5c | 1,176$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45a4…5eb3backed Yes | 41c | 1,153$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,140$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 8c | 1,118$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.41 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +31%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff0…ad1ebacked Yes | 35c | 1,111$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.85 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c7ecbacked Yes | 23c | 1,074$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 10c | 1,028$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.61 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…929ebacked Yes | 58c | 1,014$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda8e…ef90backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 5-8%?this page
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 11-14%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 14-17%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 17-20%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 8-11%?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%?No won
- Will another person win the South Korean election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.