World Politics · resolved market
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 17-20%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06916f9473282fc79123ed93cc7f599ffdad421240e4030e6e2500e0b3192253
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $265,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $262,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $265,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8861…eed6backed Yes | 12c | 100,024$11,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,802.43 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb343…ac27backed Yes | 10c | 13,608$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.94 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…b6f7backed Yes | 17c | 12,090$2,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,112.28 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa6…0a57backed Yes | 11c | 7,629$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8a…d888backed Yes | 9c | 4,907$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.01 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 9c | 3,138$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.45 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe051…73edbacked Yes | 10c | 2,796$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.57 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 3cpaid | +115%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 2,663$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.26 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…e7b1backed Yes | 12c | 2,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.12 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 7c | 1,502$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,314$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.57 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543a…f2cfbacked Yes | 17c | 1,175$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.76 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,118$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 954$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…1bb1backed Yes | 21c | 947.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 12c | 868.58$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.7 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 9c | 848.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d17…9558backed Yes | 4c | 771.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 721.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.44 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 13c | 700$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f866backed Yes | 11c | 660.02$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7689…af2abacked Yes | 15c | 653.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 16c | 400$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 12c | 399.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…7eaabacked Yes | 13c | 381.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7190…02d8backed Yes | 5c | 369.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 8c | 327$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa73e…1d9ebacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d8…d585backed Yes | 7c | 299.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 4c | 253.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 12c | 231.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 5c | 207.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc88…9ba3backed Yes | 13c | 200.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…e96ebacked Yes | 5c | 193$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…cbafbacked Yes | 12c | 180$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 7c | 174.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…c12dbacked Yes | 14c | 146.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d3…29e1backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…d639backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa066…bfd4backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa290…872fbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x779f…b18dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1707…93c4backed Yes | 13c | 78.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff0…980abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 17-20%?this page
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 11-14%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 14-17%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 5-8%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 8-11%?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%?No won
- Will another person win the South Korean election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.