World Politics · resolved market
Will another person win the South Korean election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c6dea983844964b3ea94ee3df4c6bdddf11035b90e04a175f9e1ea8ee638c50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $186,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 5c | 31,105$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420.49 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 5c | 25,389$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.74 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 7,164$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.5 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 4c | 6,772$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.47 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…2fbdbacked Yes | 5c | 4,475$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.11 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…f6b5backed Yes | 6c | 4,115$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.14 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 3,151$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.68 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 5c | 3,081$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.52 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,526$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.92 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5646…3819backed Yes | 2c | 2,135$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,072$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 8c | 2,066$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.97 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…b14bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,264$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +125%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes | 4c | 1,255$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 6c | 1,200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…6835backed Yes | 9c | 836.66$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 4c | 639.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 3c | 632.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 600.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…f971backed Yes | 7c | 590$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x892b…c7a7backed Yes | 6c | 543$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 540$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 529.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…b605backed Yes | 5c | 464.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89d2…6031backed Yes | 4c | 403.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe7…7896backed Yes | 4c | 380.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -63%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 5c | 334.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 4c | 306.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 4c | 282$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 5c | 233.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…e05abacked Yes | 6c | 202$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 188.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb613…517bbacked Yes | 9c | 133$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31bd…1681backed Yes | 9c | 128$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will another person win the South Korean election?this page
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 11-14%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 14-17%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 17-20%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 5-8%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 8-11%?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.