World Politics · resolved market
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 11-14%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef97b3c0ae4121f2ae1cbda3752885d56f1cd1472a6ec0dc175c7fe0d6ffed2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $421,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $366,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $421,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8861…eed6backed Yes | 17c | 63,102$10,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,588.44 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e2…6e12backed No | 79c | 14,641$11,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,111.71 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 0c | 13,148$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 10,700$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…fa0dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +197.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…e7b1backed Yes | 26c | 10,000$2,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,629.99 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes | 34c | 9,390$3,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,227.82 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed No | 14c | 7,192$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,201.16 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb343…ac27backed Yes | 33c | 6,499$2,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,142.03 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 24c | 5,894$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,405.8 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919a…23b4backed Yes | 35c | 5,000$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +206.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 35c | 4,439$1,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,553.08 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1707…93c4backed Yes | 35c | 4,430$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,563.59 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…e4bdbacked Yes | 28c | 4,232$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.66 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 76c | 4,137$3,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.26 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c3…4397backed Yes | 29c | 3,930$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff9e…56a1backed Yes | 62c | 3,810$2,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,367.78 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14d2…71a1backed Yes | 55c | 3,635$1,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,996 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 34c | 3,612$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,379.22 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 77c | 3,600$2,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…b6f7backed Yes | 58c | 3,555$2,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,047.99 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8a…d888backed Yes | 22c | 3,359$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae7…1884backed Yes | 38c | 3,226$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.54 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 77c | 3,015$2,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.27 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 3,000$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 13c | 2,917$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,537.04 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…a2d2backed Yes | 26c | 2,860$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.46 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed No | 15c | 2,851$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,414.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c62…5d44backed Yes | 28c | 2,740$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.61 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 39c | 2,624$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…34b6backed Yes | 26c | 2,302$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.08 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 52c | 2,225$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…e790backed Yes | 18c | 2,200$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.94 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…d383backed Yes | 21c | 1,875$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.65 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…5553backed Yes | 21c | 1,644$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 36c | 1,495$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.83 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 1,465$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 38c | 1,300$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed Yes | 30c | 1,136$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…714ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,068$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…dcf1backed Yes | 4c | 1,050$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +337.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa50…8756backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 990.37$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.35 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x956f…e875backed Yes | 20c | 984.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.83 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 33c | 922.02$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.91 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa73e…1d9ebacked Yes | 26c | 887.72$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.67 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf99…1a91backed Yes | 24c | 863.63$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.29 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…de87backed Yes | 29c | 855.41$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.95 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9063…3cc8backed Yes | 47c | 813.25$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d29…5d93backed Yes | 43c | 768.47$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…d639backed No | 14c | 754.25$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…d93abacked Yes | 27c | 738.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 25c | 731.66$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.24 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…c928backed Yes | 51c | 686.86$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 16c | 685.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.97 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 48c | 625$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.28 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…cbafbacked Yes | 37c | 619.86$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.36 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93f…a0eebacked Yes | 18c | 600$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 533.89$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.17 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 19c | 526$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.06 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +15.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 77c | 500$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.92 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…f1d5backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 79c | 470.02$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.19 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…e2e8backed No | 71c | 464.06$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.58 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd977…9d35backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eda…d4ddbacked Yes | 27c | 444$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.78 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 27c | 424.5$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.35 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 75c | 407.12$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.78 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +154.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe238…27b3backed Yes | 34c | 390$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.7 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa483…1d9ebacked Yes | 29c | 350.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3504…3e45backed No | 70c | 350$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 20c | 344.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf281…813bbacked Yes | 21c | 335.71$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387a…927dbacked Yes | 20c | 333.65$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 18c | 318.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 20c | 304$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5509…101cbacked Yes | 47c | 296.94$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -43%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d3…29e1backed Yes | 25c | 255.01$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40f9…26d9backed Yes | 21c | 250.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 244.4$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 6c | 236.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7294…afc9backed Yes | 43c | 224.31$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…5f15backed Yes | 27c | 210.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 15c | 209.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 23c | 209.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…7eaabacked Yes | 25c | 205$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7136…b35abacked Yes | 27c | 184.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +272.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…6c1fbacked Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af3…75ebbacked Yes | 22c | 175.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…2b2dbacked Yes | 74c | 165.8$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda0b…f4f6backed Yes | 66c | 154.71$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.46 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…bf18backed Yes | 77c | 150.09$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.53 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeba6…e84cbacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 27c | 146.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff0…980abacked Yes | 21c | 143$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 68c | 143$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x543a…f2cfbacked Yes | 13c | 136$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa386…a3aebacked Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 11-14%?this page
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 14-17%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 17-20%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 5-8%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 8-11%?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%?No won
- Will another person win the South Korean election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.