TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$608,585
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$401,876

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $608,585 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6fa7…8ea1backed Yes1c100,493$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.323119.4%6 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick10cpaid+447.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc2d…8cd1backed Yes2c47,753$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.44825%2 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+201.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes7c29,500$2,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,089.53234.4%11 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc3c…b218backed Yes7c27,266$1,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,886.886331.7%20 W · 43 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-18.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes6c24,484$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355.1519027.9%53 W · 137 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c24,430$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.876883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x438d…8ef2backed Yes5c23,401$1,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.431030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+415.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe39f…e4bdbacked Yes1c18,034$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.193016.7%5 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes7c16,979$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.358440.5%34 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc57b…0a2bbacked Yes4c11,122$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4951643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.21per pick23cpaid+391.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf5c1…d84abacked Yes2c10,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150650%3 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+301.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x305d…54afbacked Yes8c8,310$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.713112.9%4 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-43.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes5c8,248$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.5823225%58 W · 174 L-0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes9c8,186$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.4143243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2269…3622backed Yes2c8,120$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.061421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9389…aaffbacked Yes0c6,166$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.04714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick2cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes8c5,014$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.328641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d8a…faeabacked Yes2c5,000$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x477a…db7cbacked Yes5c5,000$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.631428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick18cpaid-20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes1c5,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+194.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ca3…947abacked Yes4c4,996$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-66.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51d4…65bbbacked Yes3c4,910$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.54650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+182.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd956…c217backed Yes5c4,584$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.49616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes4c4,257$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.683411.8%4 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18d…9863backed Yes7c4,239$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.137816.7%13 W · 65 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x452e…56cbbacked Yes5c3,894$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf99…1a91backed Yes6c3,715$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+46.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes3c3,600$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.816535.8%59 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes6c3,578$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.56229%18 W · 44 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes7c3,033$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.3318214.8%27 W · 155 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+218.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes8c3,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2404825%12 W · 36 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+108.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Yes11c3,000$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.33862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.34per pick29cpaid+75%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdfcd…b1b3backed Yes6c2,899$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.91425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed50…9e1fbacked Yes3c2,841$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.231729.4%5 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick16cpaid-7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b0c…cebebacked Yes4c2,803$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid+43.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes8c2,746$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.4216744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes7c2,520$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.0613525.2%34 W · 101 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes2c2,400$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.25132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb13f…3de9backed Yes10c2,004$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid+15.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd93f…a0eebacked Yes4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5be1…e799backed Yes18c1,862$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid+5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x956f…e875backed Yes12c1,724$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+28.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe3de…a167backed Yes3c1,392$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391625%4 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+344.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53a4…4447backed Yes4c1,372$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.51747.1%8 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.21per pick26cpaid+95.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd991…23bebacked Yes4c1,352$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-64.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes7c1,237$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.543938.5%15 W · 24 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+29.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbfbe…e790backed Yes9c1,130$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.42040%8 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes5c1,104$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5838023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes4c1,085$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4611222.3%25 W · 87 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-48.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c1,072$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes4c1,020$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.57123.9%17 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+86.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfab1…d1e6backed Yes4c1,002$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+160.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e8b…3a15backed Yes5c1,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481520%3 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604847.9%23 W · 25 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes4c999.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.520325.6%52 W · 151 L-0.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f8…3186backed Yes6c999.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571553.3%8 W · 7 L+6.0wins+0.40per pick13cpaid+770.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xb56b…a2d2backed Yes4c837.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.912030%6 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.17per pick13cpaid+36.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcbe7…7896backed Yes4c813.39$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-63%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x179e…ebe8backed Yes4c800.02$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.86219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+84.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes9c758.12$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5256314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfbe…4ef3backed Yes6c751.81$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.39248.3%2 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf978…cf69backed Yes9c737.5$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652927.6%8 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c736.93$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.691,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e09…a4edbacked Yes6c704$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.421560%9 W · 6 L+4.4wins+0.29per pick31cpaid+70.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8b2a…3111backed Yes7c699.98$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes6c698.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.945123.5%12 W · 39 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+147.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc8e…c98cbacked Yes10c666.64$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.881010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-45.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x221d…7207backed Yes2c650$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-54.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc88…9ba3backed Yes2c625$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10100%0 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2444…241fbacked Yes8c605.76$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.13616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes6c518.38$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.110520%21 W · 84 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7136…b35abacked Yes9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+272.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes13c500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658330.1%25 W · 58 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf968…84bdbacked Yes4c500$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192035%7 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+78%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes12c450$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.51838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+145.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes6c436.69$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.126114.8%9 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-47.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes3c421.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.645815.5%9 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+40.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe72d…a4e0backed Yes11c391.93$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9063…3cc8backed Yes9c388.89$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+17.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14b5…16bfbacked Yes12c338.75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+76.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2733…8740backed Yes3c332.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.372227.3%6 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes4c302.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.322939.2%27 W · 266 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde3b…18a9backed Yes13c298$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.741330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+42.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ef3…5fdabacked Yes4c253.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6841…23bebacked Yes12c250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303324.2%8 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+594.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes11c246.08$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.976735.8%24 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes10c200$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6717524.6%43 W · 132 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes7c187.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.481256.4%8 W · 117 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd5…0350backed Yes9c159.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes10c153.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.327828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85ab…8b3cbacked Yes8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…b071backed Yes8c135.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.822035%7 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc652…11b1backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.451838.9%7 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.