World Politics · resolved market
Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7eaab73269f6a83d6ec6dea02464b844b7c79d3a518265b8aa669842342ab3f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $608,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $401,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $608,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6fa7…8ea1backed Yes | 1c | 100,493$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.32 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +447.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2d…8cd1backed Yes | 2c | 47,753$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +201.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes | 7c | 29,500$2,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,089.5 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 7c | 27,266$1,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,886.88 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 6c | 24,484$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.15 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 24,430$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.87 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438d…8ef2backed Yes | 5c | 23,401$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.43 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +415.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…e4bdbacked Yes | 1c | 18,034$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.19 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 7c | 16,979$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.35 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked Yes | 4c | 11,122$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 23cpaid | +391.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…d84abacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +301.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…54afbacked Yes | 8c | 8,310$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.71 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 5c | 8,248$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.58 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 9c | 8,186$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.41 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…3622backed Yes | 2c | 8,120$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.06 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9389…aaffbacked Yes | 0c | 6,166$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 2cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 8c | 5,014$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.32 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8a…faeabacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…db7cbacked Yes | 5c | 5,000$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.63 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +194.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca3…947abacked Yes | 4c | 4,996$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d4…65bbbacked Yes | 3c | 4,910$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +182.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd956…c217backed Yes | 5c | 4,584$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 4c | 4,257$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.68 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18d…9863backed Yes | 7c | 4,239$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.13 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x452e…56cbbacked Yes | 5c | 3,894$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf99…1a91backed Yes | 6c | 3,715$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 3c | 3,600$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.8 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 6c | 3,578$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.5 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 7c | 3,033$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.33 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Yes | 11c | 3,000$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 29cpaid | +75%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcd…b1b3backed Yes | 6c | 2,899$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed50…9e1fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,841$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.23 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…cebebacked Yes | 4c | 2,803$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 8c | 2,746$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.42 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 7c | 2,520$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.06 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 2,400$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13f…3de9backed Yes | 10c | 2,004$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93f…a0eebacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be1…e799backed Yes | 18c | 1,862$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956f…e875backed Yes | 12c | 1,724$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…a167backed Yes | 3c | 1,392$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +344.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 4c | 1,372$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 26cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…23bebacked Yes | 4c | 1,352$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 7c | 1,237$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…e790backed Yes | 9c | 1,130$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 5c | 1,104$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 4c | 1,085$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 1,072$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 4c | 1,020$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…d1e6backed Yes | 4c | 1,002$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +160.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…3a15backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 4c | 999.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed Yes | 6c | 999.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +6.0wins | +0.40per pick | 13cpaid | +770.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…a2d2backed Yes | 4c | 837.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe7…7896backed Yes | 4c | 813.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -63%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 4c | 800.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 758.12$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…4ef3backed Yes | 6c | 751.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf978…cf69backed Yes | 9c | 737.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 736.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…a4edbacked Yes | 6c | 704$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2a…3111backed Yes | 7c | 699.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 6c | 698.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8e…c98cbacked Yes | 10c | 666.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed Yes | 2c | 650$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc88…9ba3backed Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2444…241fbacked Yes | 8c | 605.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 6c | 518.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7136…b35abacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +272.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf968…84bdbacked Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +78%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 12c | 450$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 6c | 436.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 3c | 421.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe72d…a4e0backed Yes | 11c | 391.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9063…3cc8backed Yes | 9c | 388.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b5…16bfbacked Yes | 12c | 338.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…8740backed Yes | 3c | 332.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 302.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde3b…18a9backed Yes | 13c | 298$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef3…5fdabacked Yes | 4c | 253.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6841…23bebacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +594.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 11c | 246.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 10c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 187.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd5…0350backed Yes | 9c | 159.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 10c | 153.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…8b3cbacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 8c | 135.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc652…11b1backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%?this page
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 11-14%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 14-17%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 17-20%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 5-8%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 8-11%?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%?No won
- Will another person win the South Korean election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.