World Politics · resolved market
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 8-11%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b07d94d02053320008306cbe30cbcbabc3276fa26ce05243223dce623878249
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $895,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $860,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $895,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8861…eed6backed Yes | 21c | 104,657$21,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82,885.71 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e2…6e12backed No | 75c | 44,529$33,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,480.17 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked No | 12c | 41,183$5,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,133.53 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 21c | 39,532$8,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,345.82 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 65c | 30,922$20,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,817.02 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 66c | 24,021$15,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,176.07 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes | 11c | 23,546$2,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,898.41 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 18c | 16,694$3,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,642.79 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2d…8cd1backed Yes | 19c | 15,269$2,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,395.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +201.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…3e1dbacked Yes | 19c | 14,963$2,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,178.6 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 11c | 14,047$1,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,593.61 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 14c | 12,057$1,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,309.3 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…e7b1backed Yes | 15c | 10,000$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,542.33 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…a2d2backed Yes | 19c | 9,691$1,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,888.41 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 18c | 9,270$1,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,568.27 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 2c | 9,161$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.32 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…d383backed Yes | 20c | 8,607$1,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,898.07 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 80c | 8,460$6,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,697.53 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…a348backed No | 17c | 7,627$1,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,314.25 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb343…ac27backed Yes | 18c | 6,798$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,544.93 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 45c | 6,487$2,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,545.64 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…5353backed Yes | 74c | 6,313$4,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,665.86 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked Yes | 7c | 5,647$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,252.68 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…54afbacked Yes | 19c | 5,607$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,547.68 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 1c | 5,296$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.37 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 13c | 5,285$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,601.43 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes | 17c | 5,093$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,252.35 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed50…9e1fbacked Yes | 59c | 5,038$2,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,046.54 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked No | 22c | 4,622$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 23cpaid | +391.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…e4bdbacked Yes | 30c | 4,044$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,818.74 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae7…1884backed Yes | 30c | 4,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 15c | 3,887$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,313.27 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c3…4397backed Yes | 21c | 3,840$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,021.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1707…93c4backed Yes | 17c | 3,700$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,085.27 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f73…8d13backed No | 10c | 3,577$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…3a15backed Yes | 35c | 3,511$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,291.41 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18d…9863backed Yes | 18c | 3,349$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,758.65 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 76c | 3,333$2,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.48 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,880 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76e9…a61cbacked No | 70c | 2,859$1,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,991.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 10c | 2,849$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,563.07 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…9091backed Yes | 62c | 2,847$1,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…cebebacked Yes | 4c | 2,771$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,666.33 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 50c | 2,680$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.21 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…e790backed Yes | 18c | 2,659$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,186.4 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51e9…c658backed Yes | 7c | 2,530$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,362.83 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 26c | 2,250$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,667.87 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…a4edbacked Yes | 20c | 2,171$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,734.92 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…5ec5backed Yes | 80c | 2,134$1,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.78 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 79c | 2,130$1,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…d93abacked Yes | 22c | 2,062$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,614.11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 14c | 2,029$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,747.35 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7136…b35abacked Yes | 20c | 2,016$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,616.49 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +272.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 17c | 2,000$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,664.91 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0c…ad7cbacked Yes | 29c | 2,000$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,411 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 14c | 2,000$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,722.28 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…b6f7backed Yes | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 16c | 1,979$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,662.58 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 12c | 1,877$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,654.96 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 26cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…34b6backed Yes | 11c | 1,840$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,637.6 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…d1e6backed Yes | 19c | 1,832$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +160.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…7d67backed Yes | 75c | 1,820$1,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 1,793$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,507.55 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8a…d888backed Yes | 72c | 1,716$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.19 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,706$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.42 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be1…e799backed Yes | 22c | 1,470$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 1,400$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,363.83 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 66c | 1,370$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.3 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…5553backed Yes | 26c | 1,353$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.15 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed Yes | 22c | 1,350$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +6.0wins | +0.40per pick | 13cpaid | +770.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Yes | 9c | 1,340$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.63 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed Yes | 23c | 1,337$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.01 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c62…5d44backed Yes | 20c | 1,304$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.75 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x840e…e9bebacked Yes | 16c | 1,277$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.82 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf99…1a91backed Yes | 15c | 1,266$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.09 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…4e2fbacked Yes | 42c | 1,259$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d9…e5d1backed Yes | 21c | 1,235$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…c928backed Yes | 30c | 1,211$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93f…a0eebacked Yes | 15c | 1,185$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.66 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd956…c217backed No | 7c | 1,179$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 80c | 1,164$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.41 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +240.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff0…ad1ebacked No | 4c | 1,048$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x956f…e875backed Yes | 19c | 1,043$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.4 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9960…43c1backed Yes | 12c | 1,030$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +231.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8731…1181backed Yes | 33c | 1,024$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.87 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 29c | 1,018$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.6 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +75%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf54…5abbbacked Yes | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +599.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab7…15a7backed Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 38cpaid | +172.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe238…27b3backed Yes | 7c | 960$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.08 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 70c | 958.22$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.26 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 11c | 952$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +15.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…fa0dbacked Yes | 2c | 863.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.34 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +197.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eda…d4ddbacked Yes | 38c | 860.93$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.29 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8e…c98cbacked Yes | 18c | 836.62$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14d2…71a1backed Yes | 63c | 801.96$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 30c | 763.23$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.31 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda8e…ef90backed Yes | 8c | 724.14$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…718cbacked Yes | 39c | 719.99$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.19 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d29…5d93backed Yes | 29c | 716.42$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 8-11%?this page
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 11-14%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 14-17%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 17-20%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 5-8%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%?No won
- Will another person win the South Korean election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.