World Politics · resolved market
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 14-17%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b163e63664a2a652870bb1e8a878c03d6d5b9bc3c7a40bdd1d71f17db960bd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $204,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $204,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8861…eed6backed Yes | 24c | 47,914$11,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,312.88 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb343…ac27backed Yes | 19c | 10,816$2,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,053.85 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…7eaabacked Yes | 2c | 10,276$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.95 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…b6f7backed Yes | 21c | 9,814$2,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,091.41 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 7,535$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.28 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed No | 73c | 6,643$4,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,801.97 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…13d9backed No | 75c | 6,642$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,641.64 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe051…73edbacked Yes | 2c | 6,045$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.55 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 3cpaid | +115%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1707…93c4backed Yes | 13c | 5,738$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.9 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…e7b1backed Yes | 29c | 5,000$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,429.55 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 1c | 3,834$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8a…d888backed Yes | 19c | 3,578$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca8…1a39backed No | 80c | 3,564$2,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.86 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes | 21c | 3,178$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.6 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18d…9863backed No | 79c | 3,065$2,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.85 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 18c | 2,900$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.49 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa6…0a57backed Yes | 22c | 2,855$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 23c | 2,786$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.99 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d17…9558backed Yes | 10c | 2,725$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.17 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 5c | 2,500$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93f…a0eebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b0…6440backed Yes | 19c | 1,771$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.06 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 78c | 1,769$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.15 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x543a…f2cfbacked Yes | 24c | 1,709$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.94 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 15c | 1,613$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.66 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…5553backed Yes | 17c | 1,521$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 15c | 1,500$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.09 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ab…b8b4backed No | 75c | 1,382$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…d383backed Yes | 24c | 1,281$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 77c | 1,110$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.01 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa73e…1d9ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,094$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 18c | 1,002$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.47 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd150…55a6backed Yes | 7c | 975.31$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 7c | 975$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf99…1a91backed Yes | 26c | 940.89$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 78c | 830.66$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.32 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 785.7$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.14 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0329…8519backed No | 75c | 766.4$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +200%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7190…02d8backed Yes | 4c | 719.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 661.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd977…9d35backed Yes | 16c | 619.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca3…947abacked Yes | 17c | 595.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…e790backed Yes | 19c | 517.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10bd…3a02backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 21c | 440.22$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…cbafbacked Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 78c | 399.99$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 15c | 381.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…3e1dbacked Yes | 17c | 368.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d29…5d93backed Yes | 20c | 312.34$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7294…afc9backed Yes | 24c | 301.83$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eda…d4ddbacked Yes | 25c | 299$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 18c | 270$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d8…d585backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…d260backed Yes | 22c | 220$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f9…26d9backed Yes | 22c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb21…8145backed Yes | 20c | 199.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bb…9bc0backed No | 79c | 166.73$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af3…75ebbacked Yes | 19c | 154.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fa…16cbbacked Yes | 16c | 135$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 13c | 133$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d3…29e1backed Yes | 21c | 130$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc894…b9f6backed No | 78c | 129$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…3f99backed Yes | 24c | 123.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77c6…bfebbacked Yes | 17c | 114.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked Yes | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…c12dbacked Yes | 19c | 104.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…dcf1backed Yes | 13c | 103.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +337.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x779f…b18dbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc27d…682ebacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 23c | 99.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…de87backed Yes | 16c | 98.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad5…e584backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc88…9ba3backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 79c | 76.44$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…1bb1backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff0…980abacked Yes | 27c | 63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ea…79d8backed Yes | 30c | 60.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4798…e795backed No | 79c | 60.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa290…872fbacked Yes | 21c | 56.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 55.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…4c94backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508a…3713backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc652…11b1backed Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 35.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…17c8backed No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b7…eb22backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 14-17%?this page
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 11-14%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 17-20%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 5-8%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 8-11%?Yes won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%?No won
- Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%?No won
- Will another person win the South Korean election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.