TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Powell say "China" during June Press Conference?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$174,760
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$175,612

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,760 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x59e7…fba5backed No63c36,172$22,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,383.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x304d…ffbfbacked Yes37c36,172$13,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,383.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8afe…73bbbacked Yes36c31,813$11,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,452.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0273…f0cbbacked No64c31,813$20,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,452.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbb…377abacked Yes40c7,688$3,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,096.951338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd602…0105backed Yes3c3,063$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.891010%1 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No63c1,952$1,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.884645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8002…8b6cbacked No61c1,949$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.26425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No59c1,863$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.925749.1%28 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+3.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No58c1,841$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.7510420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No57c1,834$1,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.257160.6%43 W · 28 L+10.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+44.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No67c1,404$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.696717.9%12 W · 55 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-65.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked No72c1,388$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.751275%9 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked No65c1,357$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.393525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No65c1,122$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.585028%14 W · 36 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe1b…4112backed No69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3101100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc7…f127backed Yes31c940$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad6…9844backed Yes44c896.69$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe10…3d5bbacked Yes33c880$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd87b…db63backed Yes34c771.33$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-81.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed No74c723.35$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.84666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick62cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked No68c710.61$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.931729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-31.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No63c705.3$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.96944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f65…e944backed No73c682.76$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6030…5e0fbacked Yes26c650$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.570%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes32c569.98$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.2819026.3%50 W · 140 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No63c509.97$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.0112941.1%53 W · 76 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1c6…76a8backed Yes32c465$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes30c450$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.256453.1%34 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d0f…4a79backed No67c445$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes38c440.98$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.27737.7%29 W · 48 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x80d7…1287backed No68c440$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69bf…6196backed No68c435$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed No62c423.85$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.973327.3%9 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4895…0a83backed Yes40c355.81$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76a0…0da6backed Yes33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ef4…833cbacked Yes42c301.81$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29e0…830bbacked No60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaa34…66fbbacked Yes32c297.9$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6558…cf5ebacked No67c284.98$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9c…1115backed Yes38c260.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes44c255.75$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.5250%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No60c252.85$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.420021.5%43 W · 157 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes31c252.72$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.37333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed No64c236.75$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.22128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x700c…9368backed Yes36c223.84$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54bb…35e5backed Yes35c222.86$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf065…c418backed Yes37c205$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.161145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8af4…0bd2backed Yes31c205$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x499e…9ea3backed Yes32c205$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No68c199.97$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.992240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed No57c193$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes52c192.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Yes25c192$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f1a…2dcdbacked No67c190$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe84…11f8backed No69c190$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes35c188.28$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.75930.5%18 W · 41 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed No68c183.1$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.366442.2%27 W · 37 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes29c182.61$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.963641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No48c176.48$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.777243.1%31 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01ff…b1d1backed Yes32c170$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8e…3abbbacked Yes37c163.76$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6040%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4da…2db1backed No60c157.99$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.362931%9 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked No59c150$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.52951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc203…ffb8backed Yes37c150$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes37c150$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.13855.3%21 W · 17 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x388f…4083backed Yes34c150$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No67c148.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.92070%14 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+24.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked No63c148.41$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.912213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…fa04backed No69c145$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+19%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes28c141$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.858626.7%23 W · 63 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdaa…416dbacked Yes14c140$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.690%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb7…17e1backed Yes36c137.83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+319%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6204…421abacked Yes37c134.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb34…2423backed Yes38c129.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes31c129.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x893a…9b52backed No68c125$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed Yes34c118.39$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.792429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3f7…702cbacked Yes31c115$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a35…3073backed Yes32c115$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes33c110$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.34723.4%11 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No60c107.95$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.183542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9ca…198bbacked Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+30.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c8…5ababacked No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.041172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+21.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403345.5%15 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2d5…9562backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06d0…059abacked No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked Yes31c99.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+29.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf282…0b22backed Yes31c95$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3ac…b03cbacked Yes33c95$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7122…4e23backed Yes32c93.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebaa…94e5backed Yes33c90$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed No56c80$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.25349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No62c79.77$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.619853.1%52 W · 46 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x515e…c9e7backed Yes38c78.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7caf…19d2backed Yes39c77.44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-78.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d29…414dbacked No66c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.76875%6 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbcf9…8161backed Yes40c65$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.