Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "China" during June Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52e49103a4f3382e2d6065a179249a33872386885d926c5bac3c36cb4b83997d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $174,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $175,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x59e7…fba5backed No | 63c | 36,172$22,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,383.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304d…ffbfbacked Yes | 37c | 36,172$13,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,383.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afe…73bbbacked Yes | 36c | 31,813$11,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,452.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…f0cbbacked No | 64c | 31,813$20,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,452.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…377abacked Yes | 40c | 7,688$3,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,096.95 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 3c | 3,063$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.89 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 63c | 1,952$1,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.88 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8002…8b6cbacked No | 61c | 1,949$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 59c | 1,863$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.92 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 58c | 1,841$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.75 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 57c | 1,834$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.25 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 67c | 1,404$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.69 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked No | 72c | 1,388$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.75 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 65c | 1,357$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.39 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 65c | 1,122$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.58 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1b…4112backed No | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc7…f127backed Yes | 31c | 940$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad6…9844backed Yes | 44c | 896.69$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…3d5bbacked Yes | 33c | 880$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…db63backed Yes | 34c | 771.33$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed No | 74c | 723.35$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 68c | 710.61$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.93 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 63c | 705.3$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f65…e944backed No | 73c | 682.76$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6030…5e0fbacked Yes | 26c | 650$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 32c | 569.98$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.28 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 63c | 509.97$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.01 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c6…76a8backed Yes | 32c | 465$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 30c | 450$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.25 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0f…4a79backed No | 67c | 445$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 38c | 440.98$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.2 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d7…1287backed No | 68c | 440$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…6196backed No | 68c | 435$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed No | 62c | 423.85$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.97 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4895…0a83backed Yes | 40c | 355.81$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a0…0da6backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef4…833cbacked Yes | 42c | 301.81$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e0…830bbacked No | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa34…66fbbacked Yes | 32c | 297.9$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…cf5ebacked No | 67c | 284.98$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…1115backed Yes | 38c | 260.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 44c | 255.75$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 252.85$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes | 31c | 252.72$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 64c | 236.75$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700c…9368backed Yes | 36c | 223.84$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…35e5backed Yes | 35c | 222.86$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 37c | 205$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af4…0bd2backed Yes | 31c | 205$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x499e…9ea3backed Yes | 32c | 205$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 68c | 199.97$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 57c | 193$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 52c | 192.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 25c | 192$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1a…2dcdbacked No | 67c | 190$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…11f8backed No | 69c | 190$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 35c | 188.28$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 68c | 183.1$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 29c | 182.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 48c | 176.48$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.77 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ff…b1d1backed Yes | 32c | 170$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8e…3abbbacked Yes | 37c | 163.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed No | 60c | 157.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…ffb8backed Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x388f…4083backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 67c | 148.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked No | 63c | 148.41$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed No | 69c | 145$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 28c | 141$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…416dbacked Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb7…17e1backed Yes | 36c | 137.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +319%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…421abacked Yes | 37c | 134.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed Yes | 38c | 129.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 31c | 129.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x893a…9b52backed No | 68c | 125$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 34c | 118.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f7…702cbacked Yes | 31c | 115$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…3073backed Yes | 32c | 115$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 33c | 110$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 60c | 107.95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ca…198bbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d5…9562backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…059abacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf282…0b22backed Yes | 31c | 95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ac…b03cbacked Yes | 33c | 95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7122…4e23backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebaa…94e5backed Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 62c | 79.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515e…c9e7backed Yes | 38c | 78.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7caf…19d2backed Yes | 39c | 77.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d29…414dbacked No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…8161backed Yes | 40c | 65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "China" during June Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "Comment" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Energy" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Immigration" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Judge" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Median" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Summer" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during June Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.