Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Comment" during June Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafe8e4294aff10b3940291c76f17c04a5ea374f5c8fc35f1985f116a1500151e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0ac…76ffbacked Yes | 75c | 1,329$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 19c | 641.71$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.93 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d5…5684backed No | 15c | 538$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 25c | 449.98$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed No | 26c | 423.35$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.34 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 25c | 413.62$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.9 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 29c | 349.64$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 28c | 320.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.81 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked Yes | 74c | 268.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d3…4ca5backed Yes | 80c | 210.49$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 31c | 210$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Yes | 72c | 188.1$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…2e7abacked No | 39c | 170$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…5ae0backed Yes | 72c | 168.5$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab3…80ecbacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1f…aa60backed Yes | 72c | 139.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked Yes | 67c | 119.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 65cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 65c | 107.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 32c | 106.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 29c | 81.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Yes | 73c | 75.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed No | 29c | 68.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed No | 31c | 53.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…8161backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…fbc2backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…5c75backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd19…0f4abacked Yes | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5770…bafcbacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 62c | 28.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b86…53d7backed Yes | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…d7f2backed Yes | 69c | 24.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52c2…65a0backed Yes | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7543…f11dbacked Yes | 71c | 22.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 62c | 21.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…4781backed Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2836…a0cdbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b0…8512backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…fcbebacked Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd29c…ddccbacked Yes | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Comment" during June Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "China" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Energy" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Immigration" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Judge" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Median" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Summer" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during June Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.