Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Unemployment" 15+ times during June Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf007049139c6f34e9fa52b73beae5e1451b9d2f742aae234c98302dd59438c10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x387a…ff69backed No | 61c | 2,280$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2e…bbefbacked Yes | 50c | 1,585$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed No | 3c | 1,570$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 48c | 1,239$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.63 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 32c | 1,040$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.22 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 68c | 999.96$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.97 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 6c | 999$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.06 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Yes | 33c | 817.12$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.27 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 57c | 423.66$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.58 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1560…7ad5backed Yes | 43c | 403.91$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.43 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…9f4abacked Yes | 30c | 300.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 4c | 300.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 22c | 299.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.99 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked No | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked Yes | 67c | 270.53$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.21 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 28c | 213.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.39 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 32c | 210$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 55c | 197.67$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.63 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0864…b3d0backed Yes | 36c | 166.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c1…438dbacked Yes | 32c | 157.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 67c | 157$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.65 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.6 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…d7f2backed Yes | 32c | 85.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…416dbacked No | 24c | 84.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 78c | 82.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 40c | 79.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes | 37c | 66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…fbc2backed Yes | 38c | 64.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe418…83f4backed No | 61c | 64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 32c | 53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ffabacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 39c | 47.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…dec3backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…6137backed Yes | 32c | 38.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca8…03aebacked Yes | 48c | 37.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 63c | 30.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedaf…6b0dbacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 59c | 29.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked No | 68c | 27.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 65cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…715fbacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…fcbebacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…219dbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7543…f11dbacked No | 60c | 17.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae1…4ad7backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" 15+ times during June Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "China" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Energy" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Immigration" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Judge" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Median" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Summer" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during June Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.