TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Powell say "Judge" during June Press Conference?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,581,541
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,595,021

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,581,541 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf289…2415backed Yes0c232,167$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e5…72ddbacked Yes0c220,423$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee1b…2784backed Yes0c216,188$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb5…68bcbacked Yes0c119,225$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f29…1e12backed Yes0c109,199$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes0c100,050$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.912917.2%5 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-38.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd247…af89backed Yes0c98,172$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5085…d8a4backed Yes0c85,500$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.63425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34a9…9e88backed Yes0c76,756$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38150%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc82c…2dd8backed Yes1c69,248$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d22…4c94backed Yes0c57,348$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea10…d4b6backed Yes0c53,600$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa249…cda0backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5431…964dbacked Yes0c49,980$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f71…6e31backed Yes0c49,223$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93a2…bc6abacked Yes0c48,880$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8bd…ef5fbacked Yes0c47,481$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc023…ccf8backed Yes0c36,500$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.590%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x033a…1f2abacked Yes0c33,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a5c…c6ddbacked Yes0c28,980$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf350…92b7backed Yes0c25,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc09…0e92backed Yes0c25,080$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76f1…bc8fbacked Yes1c24,684$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.4730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87dc…2afdbacked Yes0c24,480$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fff…f15fbacked Yes0c23,850$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x392a…7de9backed Yes0c23,068$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7b0…0233backed Yes0c21,420$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x987c…7f4ebacked Yes0c20,790$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes0c20,333$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2160%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12e2…667cbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2849…b009backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-73%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02e6…c14ebacked Yes0c20,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd2e…0626backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d9e…be8cbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcce…3e55backed Yes0c19,832$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd134…bdf7backed Yes0c19,740$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c28…79aabacked Yes0c18,350$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51c7…815dbacked Yes0c18,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e72…0306backed Yes0c17,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96e8…6b7bbacked Yes0c15,834$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.531618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40e9…8269backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b33…535fbacked Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4258…4d1ebacked Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e4e…7c84backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65ef…decebacked Yes0c14,667$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10d6…a48cbacked Yes0c13,434$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1760%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb83c…f180backed Yes0c13,333$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4358…b939backed Yes0c13,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5659…4540backed Yes0c13,133$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db8…f665backed Yes0c12,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ecc…dd60backed Yes0c12,020$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf85…d0b6backed Yes0c11,667$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb302…add7backed Yes0c11,090$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x409c…0ba4backed Yes0c10,700$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02f7…dba4backed Yes0c10,588$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54d0…2b2cbacked Yes0c10,480$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c96…3eefbacked Yes0c10,030$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e5f…c8d3backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-47.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4cd…3995backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c1…7ac6backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x466f…b3e5backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb77…1dd0backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd099…6323backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x172b…7458backed Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4795…7952backed Yes0c9,998$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bba…55e0backed Yes0c9,407$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11a1…7afebacked Yes9c9,402$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.821643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d02…59bfbacked Yes0c9,250$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe501…df65backed Yes0c9,183$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95c8…f511backed Yes2c8,981$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.03333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-47.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3729…3e1ebacked Yes0c8,393$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7b5…a6dbbacked Yes0c7,984$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9780%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes7c7,617$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.792128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd98…846ebacked Yes0c7,600$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x373d…def6backed Yes0c7,250$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1066…f74fbacked Yes0c7,001$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb09…0f04backed Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadf3…90d3backed Yes1c6,333$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe084…3243backed Yes0c5,754$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No30c5,697$1,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,989.687160.6%43 W · 28 L+10.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+44.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4277…98a8backed Yes0c5,591$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ed0…8818backed Yes0c5,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes1c5,246$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.92540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…9f06backed Yes0c5,051$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9445…07c3backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x359e…6a0fbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91f8…6951backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6b2…072bbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98fa…d698backed Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e3c…b549backed Yes0c5,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3532…cc1fbacked Yes0c4,833$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf620…a623backed Yes0c4,341$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fd0…eb9dbacked Yes0c4,333$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea36…f272backed Yes0c4,234$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.27425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-50%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9147…834fbacked Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8db…b54ebacked Yes0c4,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd34a…8251backed Yes0c3,823$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes0c3,686$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.01520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-64.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd602…0105backed Yes63c3,675$2,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,300.641010%1 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.