Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Summer" during June Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x734519f9aff50ca7d8f305325f0c1f566b29eb4c3fd4d864f7f869017d8d99a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69d2…924abacked No | 60c | 34,161$20,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,496.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18bf…0404backed Yes | 40c | 34,161$13,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,496.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 15c | 1,364$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.57 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 16c | 1,301$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 70c | 1,297$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.72 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 20c | 1,271$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.53 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 76c | 557.02$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.08 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 79c | 436$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.92 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 24c | 399.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e0…830bbacked No | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 21c | 250$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fa…10e7backed No | 29c | 180.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…e494backed No | 22c | 162$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd2…1e85backed No | 22c | 136$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…2e7abacked No | 28c | 111.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed No | 32c | 104.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 26c | 95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 71c | 91.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 15c | 90.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 71c | 87.63$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed No | 26c | 77.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked Yes | 62c | 64.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…bb91backed No | 31c | 63.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 34c | 42.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 80c | 32.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2cac…6fa7backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 78c | 27.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…bd98backed Yes | 80c | 13.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Summer" during June Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "China" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Energy" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Immigration" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Judge" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Median" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during June Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.