Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Immigration" during June Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe305b4771da0a84fd4c77255be5ae13c8ad6f6b67db1d13702f9e79573dfa9bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 6c | 6,666$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.18 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 23c | 1,450$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.5 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 18c | 802.07$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.37 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 27c | 683$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.13 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 28c | 612$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.38 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 75c | 494$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.5 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 24c | 450$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 80c | 450$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.96 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 69c | 427.8$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.66 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…2e7abacked No | 33c | 395.84$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.67 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…9657backed Yes | 66c | 378.98$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.85 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 30c | 337.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Yes | 72c | 308.02$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1b…d598backed Yes | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…79d5backed Yes | 73c | 205.17$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…3afcbacked No | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…d7f2backed Yes | 72c | 145.43$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 68c | 101.29$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed No | 32c | 92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…ea6cbacked No | 34c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 25c | 82.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…a39bbacked No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…9239backed No | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed No | 35c | 56.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…89c2backed Yes | 62c | 53.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ffabacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1560…7ad5backed Yes | 73c | 49.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 27c | 49.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 29c | 39.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 60c | 34.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…7df0backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fd…989abacked No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…e13ebacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…321abacked Yes | 62c | 18.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Immigration" during June Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "China" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Energy" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Judge" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Median" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Summer" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during June Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.