Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Recession" during June Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb98fa25763df9b3da0d563460975f1f9a1844f62890f6b6e348c1527b3d42f89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 2c | 1,982$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…76ffbacked Yes | 73c | 1,371$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 22c | 986.74$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.73 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 26c | 979.61$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.13 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 27c | 931.6$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.2 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8002…8b6cbacked Yes | 76c | 925$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes | 71c | 913.09$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.79 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 31c | 753.32$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.02 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 24c | 708.24$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.59 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 19c | 549.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.49 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 40c | 436.44$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.04 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed Yes | 73c | 424$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.4 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 30c | 418.01$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.57 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 26c | 415.23$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.47 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 41c | 404$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.3 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bf…bc05backed Yes | 73c | 300$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 296.23$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.88 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…79d5backed Yes | 71c | 281.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1b…d598backed Yes | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 30c | 225.88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.15 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 27c | 210$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.3 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 25c | 189.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.67 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…2e7abacked No | 30c | 187$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.83 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…7b8bbacked No | 66c | 181.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 20c | 162.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Yes | 66c | 156.55$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 28c | 153.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.67 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 69c | 150.85$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.04 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…8f8bbacked Yes | 56c | 145.12$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab3…80ecbacked Yes | 71c | 140.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…da7cbacked Yes | 72c | 138.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…a189backed Yes | 75c | 134.84$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked Yes | 75c | 134.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…78b9backed Yes | 73c | 130.93$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.58 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed No | 26c | 127.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.66 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6791…7ab9backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 69c | 125$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 103.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…fecfbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…0a2cbacked No | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…49febacked Yes | 74c | 94.59$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 19c | 89.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…6e02backed Yes | 79c | 84.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 21c | 83.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.66 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c1…7e21backed Yes | 63c | 79.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked Yes | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 65cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 20c | 72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed No | 28c | 66.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed No | 32c | 62.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 76c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1d…d5c6backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ffabacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc2…ff8bbacked No | 28c | 48.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd29c…ddccbacked Yes | 63c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…3ab9backed Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57bd…cf55backed No | 36c | 38.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -31%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 77c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…d7f2backed No | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa34…66fbbacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f8…1377backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb20a…b8f1backed Yes | 74c | 26.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9b…4123backed Yes | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe03b…1007backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b86…53d7backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0810…0f6ebacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Recession" during June Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "China" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Energy" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Immigration" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Judge" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Median" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Summer" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during June Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.