Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Downbeat" during June Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f9e0a5f2a94d8dcb4e6b10519b8bf2032c555433027bf0015439b8f0fa18467
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $170,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $171,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2cd…9ad1backed No | 66c | 52,757$34,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,937.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b3…4297backed Yes | 34c | 52,757$17,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,937.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf918…bcd3backed Yes | 55c | 29,511$16,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,231.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304d…ffbfbacked No | 45c | 29,511$13,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,231.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…76ffbacked Yes | 58c | 1,722$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 45c | 809.26$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 36c | 572$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.08 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 49c | 400$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed No | 37c | 400$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 75c | 322$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.15 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed Yes | 51c | 319$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.57 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 49c | 222$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.22 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 54c | 209.95$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.39 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…6b7bbacked No | 52c | 192.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.69 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 46c | 181$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.84 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 52c | 178.63$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.74 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 34c | 170.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed No | 66c | 162.12$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3616…850ebacked No | 42c | 118.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…6759backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked No | 50c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…d621backed No | 37c | 54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked No | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 51c | 22.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +52%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…c139backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +56%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during June Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "China" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Energy" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Immigration" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Judge" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Median" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Summer" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during June Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.