Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Obvious" during June Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb3b33ea2a3595cad0464b380db54055121fc170380c25f992e61d6d0ef859ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $216,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $216,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d89…25cdbacked Yes | 57c | 36,693$20,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,915.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58e…683abacked No | 43c | 36,693$15,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,915.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3253…03f9backed Yes | 39c | 31,073$12,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,118.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999c…c507backed No | 61c | 31,073$18,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,118.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d36…10d5backed Yes | 52c | 28,215$14,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,671.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e305backed No | 48c | 28,195$13,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,661.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 44cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 3c | 4,437$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.67 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…76ffbacked Yes | 56c | 1,773$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 61c | 1,634$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 37c | 1,528$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.24 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…508ebacked No | 45c | 1,200$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f65…e944backed Yes | 70c | 1,077$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8464…c804backed No | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 44c | 998.94$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.48 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 64c | 795$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.2 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…019cbacked Yes | 50c | 650.09$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 50c | 607.99$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…2035backed Yes | 55c | 550$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa6…ade5backed Yes | 55c | 545$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6866…45b4backed Yes | 56c | 520$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 41c | 486.54$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.53 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 36c | 350$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.8 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.75 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaed…b558backed Yes | 56c | 285$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed No | 40c | 245$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.7 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 51c | 200$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed Yes | 55c | 182.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…c040backed Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x893a…9b52backed Yes | 56c | 170$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…2e7abacked No | 50c | 168$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.68 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd621…4cf1backed Yes | 50c | 157.39$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 52c | 139.38$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 34c | 137.16$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.88 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed No | 50c | 128$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Yes | 50c | 123.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 51c | 119.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed Yes | 48c | 105.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…9f4abacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3616…850ebacked No | 51c | 98.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab3…80ecbacked Yes | 52c | 95.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 49c | 84.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…bb1cbacked Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d76…5e81backed Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…ab14backed No | 53c | 76.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…5c75backed Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5085…d8a4backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 54c | 58.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d79…7181backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2836…a0cdbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x851e…e2acbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 42c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…27debacked No | 50c | 43.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +76%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e3…cad2backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 51c | 34.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 43c | 34.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 48c | 28.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…fe6cbacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8555…4c4bbacked Yes | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…219dbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47b3…68fabacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92c8…0c5bbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x316e…e6efbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during June Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "China" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Energy" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Immigration" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Judge" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Median" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Summer" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during June Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.