Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Median" during June Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46305e80dad3d742751bbf8e209332ecff42899cac488b8ad1e42ea35fa2237b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 7c | 7,895$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.88 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 4c | 7,500$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.49 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed No | 12c | 5,649$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.61 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6030…5e0fbacked No | 8c | 4,000$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…5c8cbacked No | 8c | 3,629$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.38 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed No | 10c | 2,000$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.22 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…2e7abacked No | 7c | 1,828$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.26 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 8c | 1,428$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.08 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 7c | 1,250$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.28 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 7c | 1,195$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.63 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 9c | 1,173$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.61 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 9c | 1,100$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 10c | 925.35$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 9c | 859$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 7c | 737.71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed No | 6c | 647.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…96edbacked No | 8c | 647.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 9c | 594.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed No | 9c | 500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…bb91backed No | 8c | 478.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 6c | 425$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef4…833cbacked No | 5c | 397.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 6c | 381$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 8c | 340$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed No | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…9239backed No | 6c | 314.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed No | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed No | 10c | 258.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe685…b715backed No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd103…dc4fbacked No | 9c | 227$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38a…8237backed No | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 5c | 211.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…9c51backed No | 5c | 210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…0c46backed No | 10c | 198.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa34…66fbbacked No | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f5…f23abacked No | 9c | 160$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…7a0bbacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 10c | 100.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Median" during June Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "China" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Energy" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Immigration" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Judge" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Summer" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during June Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.