TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$306,264
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$307,864

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $306,264 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8b39…7729backed No41c37,721$15,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,255.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc2a…2fe6backed Yes59c37,721$22,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,255.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6c4…71b9backed Yes41c36,672$15,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,035.52250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa733…cd61backed No59c36,672$21,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,035.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe346…82abbacked Yes47c30,458$14,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,315.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cdd…c765backed No53c30,458$16,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,315.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf918…bcd3backed No57c27,912$15,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,002.16250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ce…e4d3backed Yes43c27,912$12,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,002.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fbb…377abacked No56c9,786$5,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,295.631338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed Yes44c5,113$2,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,267.821030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes50c2,500$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2506842.6%29 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes53c2,128$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,137.111457.1%8 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes41c1,853$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.214344.2%19 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+54.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No52c1,851$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.987160.6%43 W · 28 L+10.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+44.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5085…d8a4backed Yes6c1,836$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes54c1,377$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.333756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+51%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes41c1,092$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.2412941.1%53 W · 76 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bd8…c5cebacked No53c1,050$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes48c1,023$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.733641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes41c1,020$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.638924.7%22 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5135…96ecbacked No53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4701100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No54c856.11$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.7510420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1de…5834backed No52c800$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-72.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6917…7279backed No42c700$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4061100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ad9…958cbacked Yes58c700$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No55c659.34$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.816453.1%34 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x70e8…f0abbacked Yes47c640$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd274…df4ebacked Yes47c615$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcacb…8aa4backed Yes47c580$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf72…aea6backed No53c560$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf258…0cebbacked Yes47c555$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47b3…68fabacked Yes49c555$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.9530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe92…d51abacked Yes40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+71%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9694…71cdbacked Yes34c488.12$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No50c464$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2321747.1%8 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No54c460.27$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.136355.6%35 W · 28 L+9.6wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xaa34…66fbbacked No56c448.55$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.551030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x499e…9ea3backed No53c435$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed No70c337.26$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.59580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+93.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa147…3fccbacked No63c319.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.03966.7%6 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2bf…bc05backed Yes40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12040%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x79c9…c040backed No64c300$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes48c299.99$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1443727%10 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f57…d626backed Yes47c285$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes39c271.33$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.944548.9%22 W · 23 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+25.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbb54…6e4bbacked Yes41c258.02$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.79875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a03…6e17backed Yes38c242$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.42450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4da…2db1backed Yes40c225$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.82931%9 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe5f…89c1backed Yes47c220$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec63…85ddbacked Yes49c202.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed No59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827265.3%47 W · 25 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc360…0c46backed Yes55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc70e…7cd6backed No52c199.99$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+28.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes47c199.64$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.72240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x308e…def2backed No51c190$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d3c…9f63backed No53c190$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11a1…7afebacked Yes37c187$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.011643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes45c172.48$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.621844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6259…8699backed No48c166.98$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.982100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+361.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bf0…d55dbacked Yes47c165$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf065…c418backed Yes42c144$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.931145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6aa…24d5backed Yes47c130$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d76…5e81backed Yes49c129.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.730%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0864…b3d0backed Yes48c125$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00c1…5b99backed Yes48c124.57$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebaa…94e5backed Yes43c120$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5631…a679backed Yes43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes48c113.9$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes41c107.65$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1419026.3%50 W · 140 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4fe…d287backed Yes49c105$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x473d…2198backed Yes47c105$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc516…5f28backed No60c101.79$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.79560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f80…14cdbacked No55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68d9…00edbacked Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ba5…4f56backed No55c94.02$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes46c86.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403345.5%15 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82c1…0217backed Yes47c85.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes74c78.15$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.832142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bbd…2503backed No55c72.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x693d…fc7cbacked Yes56c71.76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e88…bd30backed Yes50c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb003…b6d3backed Yes48c70$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes42c69.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.395930.5%18 W · 41 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes26c57.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.332128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Yes43c56.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.27520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-71.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06c6…4162backed No55c55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.75540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07e0…1db9backed Yes48c52.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+25.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed Yes46c52$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.926442.2%27 W · 37 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.4wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+30.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7d79…7181backed Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-62.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55d8…0cf5backed Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.27per pick36cpaid-87%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x932b…64c0backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-62.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8609…c23fbacked No51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0306…e85cbacked Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb429…bd15backed No53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a3f…e333backed Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcbf…4ffabacked No57c49.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.321457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.