TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Serie A · resolved market

Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,547,772
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,534,541

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,547,772 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 494 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Serie A
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6143…c6dabacked No57c105,127$59,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,922.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8805…90eabacked Yes43c105,127$45,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,922.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5dc…5104backed No69c90,876$62,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,704.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b2e…09c8backed Yes31c90,873$28,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,702.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea40…05a7backed Yes31c44,653$13,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,810.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdf1…8428backed No69c44,653$30,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,810.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No35c42,992$15,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,183.3924939.4%98 W · 151 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No1c37,811$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No62c33,720$20,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,898.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes48c29,096$14,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,037.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+107%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5dc…35f9backed No7c27,033$1,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,814.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb84f…f8edbacked No34c25,136$8,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,656.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x611e…df31backed No5c21,161$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No57c20,699$11,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,822.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x958f…7a7dbacked No63c20,376$12,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,760.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes41c18,395$7,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,892.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+145.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5192…78a4backed No60c18,247$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cab…6817backed Yes40c16,075$6,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,686.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+151.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked No54c15,568$8,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,338.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d48…dd1ebacked No11c14,858$1,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,578.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed No60c13,120$7,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,859.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No52c12,863$6,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,699.7220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90a8…0261backed No63c11,839$7,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,428.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b8…f0cbbacked No58c11,475$6,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,650.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x344f…bd80backed No0c11,031$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0583…3b8cbacked No0c10,434$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x335d…c9c3backed Yes34c10,423$3,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,894.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+195.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x427c…17b7backed No8c10,400$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No34c10,080$3,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,406.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb78e…30e3backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed No56c9,579$5,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,381.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Yes43c9,123$3,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,205.11973.7%14 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1166…7c32backed No67c8,871$5,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,916.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes38c8,784$3,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,426.79475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick33cpaid+81.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No19c8,200$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes35c8,191$2,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,311.22560%3 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick22cpaid+105.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c4a…f5e6backed Yes38c7,182$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,481.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+166%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a61…2c6bbacked No58c6,671$3,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,895.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x402a…d1d1backed Yes36c6,287$2,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,001.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+175.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed No25c6,250$1,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,542.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No61c6,000$3,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,663.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes43c5,944$2,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,408.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+134.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes43c5,884$2,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,328.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+130.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes41c5,505$2,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,258.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+145%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes78c5,329$4,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,188.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed72…e319backed Yes46c5,217$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,817.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab7b…f350backed Yes44c5,211$2,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,907.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+126.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No61c5,202$3,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,190.12250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes42c5,201$2,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,016.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes39c5,022$1,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,060.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9da1…7086backed Yes49c5,000$2,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,554.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x814a…25adbacked Yes42c5,000$2,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,885.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+136.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa14b…b944backed Yes52c4,896$2,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,365.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes34c4,653$1,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,065.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+193.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ebd…2882backed No5c4,414$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed Yes35c4,337$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,804.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+182.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No34c4,156$1,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,397.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No55c3,975$2,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,168.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x729a…c966backed No57c3,784$2,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,144.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e26…336cbacked No60c3,722$2,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,245.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes44c3,608$1,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,030.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+128.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57cd…82acbacked No58c3,552$2,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,051.341421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No58c3,490$2,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed Yes47c3,483$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,832.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc9d…4cc1backed No55c3,300$1,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,822.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x668d…08b5backed Yes42c3,162$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,822.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+136%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked No43c3,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2802231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc81…2332backed No68c2,952$1,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,996.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No58c2,951$1,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,706.6620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes31c2,948$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,029.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+221%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5098…f59ebacked Yes40c2,839$1,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,696.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+148.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked No59c2,676$1,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,571.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes41c2,625$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,558.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+146%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes42c2,600$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,514.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+139.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed Yes38c2,555$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,581.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+162.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes44c2,366$1,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed No59c2,247$1,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b70…ed51backed Yes39c2,240$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,364.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+155.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes44c2,216$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,247.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+128.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0347…e0e5backed Yes54c2,192$1,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf572…09f2backed Yes40c2,014$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+151.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57c5…28e5backed No1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked Yes45c2,000$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Yes47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0601952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xae06…77e1backed No61c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6459…c926backed Yes47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0601100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed No59c1,881$1,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd48…db01backed No59c1,854$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7147…48c8backed No20c1,798$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97d3…3f3cbacked No57c1,781$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,01610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3ba…9e00backed No69c1,721$1,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5943…2ef2backed No52c1,700$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ce0…b2ffbacked Yes34c1,700$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+193.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0ae…9b16backed No20c1,691$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No63c1,652$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe150…27b3backed Yes37c1,642$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc490…6507backed Yes40c1,618$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.441346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+53.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes49c1,577$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6130…144abacked Yes44c1,500$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8401100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd42…99a4backed No59c1,424$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.