AI · resolved market
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe81eca5d2505c0898a5b7bf40b94d59c632b2b23e3038fdf38a3d98a5282c47b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $467,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $450,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $467,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 431 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 61c | 26,090$15,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,914.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…9017backed Yes | 58c | 20,000$11,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,650 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed Yes | 53c | 16,796$8,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,982.86 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -88%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1569…4e0cbacked Yes | 57c | 10,619$6,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,045.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3d18…b702backed Yes | 66c | 9,154$6,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,011.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,492$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.06 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked No | 37c | 7,040$2,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,421.36 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 62c | 6,619$4,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,134.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…e29cbacked Yes | 57c | 6,000$3,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,414.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 6c | 4,085$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.84 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…7ddcbacked Yes | 63c | 3,507$2,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,206.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…d383backed Yes | 17c | 3,130$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cc…71f4backed Yes | 63c | 3,126$1,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,973.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…f36cbacked Yes | 54c | 3,073$1,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,643.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb71b…46e8backed Yes | 46c | 3,003$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1af…701ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 68c | 3,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Yes | 60c | 2,784$1,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,677.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed No | 29c | 2,659$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,888.17 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 70c | 2,632$1,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,838.93 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe448…f5cbbacked Yes | 29c | 2,530$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…4dc4backed Yes | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,324.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 38c | 2,384$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.9 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,313$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 2,272$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes | 12c | 2,190$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9810…f117backed Yes | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 43c | 1,983$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.31 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 1c | 1,845$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x140e…7e9abacked Yes | 59c | 1,679$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d9…36e6backed Yes | 64c | 1,600$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 4c | 1,556$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb2…02a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,520$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 39c | 1,515$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.32 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0c…ad7cbacked Yes | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…4ba0backed Yes | 69c | 1,402$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 25c | 1,395$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.99 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22aa…2bdcbacked Yes | 65c | 1,384$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 41c | 1,367$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.25 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdc…ba4abacked Yes | 14c | 1,323$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x918a…aa22backed Yes | 45c | 1,321$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 52c | 1,302$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c4…1ca7backed Yes | 17c | 1,300$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da6…eababacked Yes | 68c | 1,241$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +186.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 57c | 1,230$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.67 | 70 | 24.3%17 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8d…7c12backed Yes | 18c | 1,123$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 17c | 1,118$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.49 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fd…6ecdbacked Yes | 65c | 1,109$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d2…6b71backed Yes | 54c | 1,044$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4f…bb30backed Yes | 3c | 1,031$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 23c | 1,011$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.1 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fb…7d8cbacked Yes | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…f924backed Yes | 40c | 968.99$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed Yes | 7c | 919.17$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 870.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…b671backed Yes | 18c | 844.74$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ad…d90bbacked Yes | 56c | 803.36$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…de3cbacked Yes | 4c | 741.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…0e4fbacked Yes | 40c | 697.65$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…e2e8backed Yes | 68c | 696.52$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca7…d86fbacked Yes | 25c | 696.5$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3b…014fbacked Yes | 67c | 695.93$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…c011backed No | 51c | 687.05$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.78 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 45c | 671.55$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.22 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bb…cca4backed Yes | 14c | 654.73$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…ffecbacked Yes | 55c | 653.91$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56de…cfa8backed No | 79c | 636.81$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 40c | 628.17$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce4…e4cfbacked Yes | 16c | 624.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 62c | 598.87$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.3 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd79a…1e60backed Yes | 3c | 592.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…91f0backed Yes | 55c | 544.83$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeac8…2a9dbacked Yes | 26c | 541.24$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 69c | 536.57$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.23 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 58c | 499.99$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b52…b65ebacked Yes | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 52c | 480.64$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.43 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf631…1d27backed Yes | 40c | 478.39$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed Yes | 21c | 467.21$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 14c | 467.2$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.41 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…e03abacked Yes | 21c | 462.82$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da0…2825backed Yes | 57c | 454.11$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 60c | 453.55$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.93 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5e…1d41backed Yes | 49c | 452.47$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 58c | 448.94$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.04 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked Yes | 70c | 446.49$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.61 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…7d67backed Yes | 59c | 445.08$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…019cbacked Yes | 27c | 444.44$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 55c | 437.24$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.48 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab8…2a81backed Yes | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…783ebacked Yes | 40c | 421.02$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.41 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 9c | 415.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1318…df41backed No | 24c | 408.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…52e5backed Yes | 60c | 400$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa862…46e2backed Yes | 57c | 395.42$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?this page
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes won
- Will another company be the largest in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.