TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$415,094
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$430,849

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $415,094 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 294 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6bd7…bd45backed Yes40c33,875$13,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,325250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8893…ae72backed No60c33,875$20,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,32520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd06b…4faebacked Yes31c24,864$7,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,184.13823.7%9 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Yes68c22,417$15,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,090.22475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1af…701ebacked Yes24c11,627$2,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,783.87728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick10cpaid+89.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d18…b702backed Yes62c5,433$3,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,077.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-46%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes23c4,654$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,591.711910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-69%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes38c4,212$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,611.8526312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf81…7defbacked Yes39c3,455$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,091.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd175…bb3abacked Yes79c3,239$2,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.99666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0a8…e606backed Yes46c3,069$1,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,645.94966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes14c2,439$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,103.4119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick3cpaid-33.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x269c…9017backed Yes44c2,000$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47ae…1fbabacked Yes73c1,951$1,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.45250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed Yes19c1,823$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.042646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9073…13b3backed Yes50c1,782$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c1,478$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.231,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No54c1,425$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.7425731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xafe2…074fbacked Yes44c1,250$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.51366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+34.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No12c1,241$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.873718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes39c1,208$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.7421713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb5…cf53backed No67c1,200$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x996c…d8b9backed No21c1,122$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed No21c1,100$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2332040%8 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3c5…1884backed Yes47c1,050$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+113.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe43d…bc5bbacked No33c1,046$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff20…2efcbacked Yes20c1,025$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+412.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc288…edb1backed Yes30c1,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7001323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a45…cf97backed Yes21c1,000$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No3c999.01$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4324315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes51c974.8$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.83100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+56.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked Yes17c959.59$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.59650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+46.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59c4…e06fbacked Yes69c950.99$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.98560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b3a…783ebacked Yes5c913.78$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.091241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick25cpaid+138.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No3c891.35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.415615.4%24 W · 132 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No73c838.22$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.241764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No2c830.69$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.522110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7ca…faa7backed Yes63c796.22$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c590backed Yes57c794.82$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.98944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2cb…3bbdbacked Yes38c766.03$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.94560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed No55c760.76$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.994219%8 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-71%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed No28c750.28$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.972326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No49c693.93$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.3247938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No43c670.69$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.457426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc608…a4eebacked Yes51c670$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3b7…49fdbacked Yes45c667.77$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.67540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac43…4925backed Yes47c665.32$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.62250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56de…cfa8backed Yes77c657.1$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.61475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes43c650$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.51020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36c9…8e6cbacked Yes61c648.83$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+62.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes50c636.11$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.6172935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1fcd…03a0backed Yes31c636$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.14560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick31cpaid+112.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x22aa…2bdcbacked Yes48c625$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad2a…9dfbbacked Yes64c619.91$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.081154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fd2…1e85backed Yes49c612.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.24250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7885…eeaebacked Yes20c599.98$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.491926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+76.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cf7…779bbacked Yes29c546.66$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.49616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-42.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6816…b693backed No59c542.8$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.05922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-50.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f05…7b5abacked Yes51c538.43$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x915f…1294backed Yes47c531.91$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc4a…104fbacked Yes28c500.11$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53f9…e920backed Yes10c500$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+81.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17d8…e57abacked No23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes46c500$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2702965.5%19 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x201c…d383backed No3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-42.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7458…fecfbacked No70c500$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501816.7%3 W · 15 L-5.1wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-77.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked No57c491.98$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.842259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes42c485.8$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.57024.3%17 W · 53 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-35.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd02…80f0backed No59c480$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9d…a540backed No71c458.65$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.871838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-40.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xae06…8acebacked Yes28c455.28$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.59944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5da6…eababacked Yes11c454.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.55450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+186.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes24c453.89$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.963525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes46c453.19$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.62642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42df…b671backed Yes33c453.01$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.01333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x788f…b152backed Yes37c446.97$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.67250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8edc…589cbacked Yes22c445$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.8425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7d2…6b71backed Yes43c440$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.6450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5f4…1327backed Yes23c414.8$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+343.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c5c…df4ebacked No25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed Yes44c400$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed Yes38c400$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.531346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd555…e28abacked Yes43c399.83$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.494146.3%19 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa862…46e2backed Yes32c388.31$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.31633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb41…1fffbacked Yes41c381.1$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+141.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes46c367.79$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.38922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick46cpaid-52.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ab1…7df3backed Yes14c360.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.342100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+328.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x24c5…923dbacked Yes31c351.98$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.92560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+114.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa0f…2433backed Yes47c346.98$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d20…4c8abacked Yes46c344.16$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7284…ea5dbacked Yes58c342.9$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06fc…94cebacked No8c333.33$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d15…1347backed Yes77c330.75$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.37683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick74cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d4…bcf3backed Yes24c326.67$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe21…f96fbacked Yes49c322.02$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0102…e4d2backed Yes41c304.88$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.88250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c4e…a4edbacked Yes27c301.75$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.162100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+160.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No54c300.3$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.662416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-70%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1318…df41backed Yes21c300$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+47.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39ef…57f5backed Yes8c300$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+205.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.