AI · resolved market
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd9ef0d63585635fadb407fa671aa6f3e3c7b7288085f9ba47894255aeab9851
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $190,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $190,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes | 2c | 19,232$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.81 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 1c | 18,164$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.65 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -70%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 15,522$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked Yes | 3c | 9,319$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.36 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 2c | 6,622$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.91 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 1c | 5,794$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 0c | 5,665$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 0c | 5,557$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,999$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 0c | 4,935$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 3c | 4,905$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.63 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -69%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacfe…c247backed Yes | 4c | 2,459$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57bd…cf55backed Yes | 1c | 2,451$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,275$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…9a73backed Yes | 1c | 1,474$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0a…3ffebacked Yes | 12c | 1,166$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,091$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -65%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821f…c3ffbacked Yes | 2c | 1,035$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Yes | 2c | 913.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…0a70backed Yes | 5c | 762.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 625.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 5c | 500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x111f…af00backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ac…84f3backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked Yes | 8c | 135.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?this page
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes won
- Will another company be the largest in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.