Champions League · resolved market
Will Palmeiras beat FC Porto?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ecdfa4386aae99b911d15d42bc4da29cc52dc2a00d82a7f34b7231aa31f5d35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fcb…0426backed Yes | 40c | 12,041$4,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,815.58 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked No | 58c | 10,162$5,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,223.8 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 62c | 6,744$4,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,589.61 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 63c | 5,243$3,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.31 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 41c | 5,208$2,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,138.59 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 43c | 5,000$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150 | 219 | 38.4%84 W · 135 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ab…5eb9backed No | 63c | 2,056$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.42 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Yes | 38c | 1,978$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed No | 58c | 1,834$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.48 | 120 | 36.7%44 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Yes | 42c | 1,515$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.5 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 63c | 1,251$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.2 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…f1f8backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 60c | 929.93$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.85 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 66c | 848.28$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.72 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb49…43febacked No | 66c | 573.88$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.51 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89fc…b5c2backed Yes | 41c | 499.99$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.99 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed No | 59c | 475.44$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.93 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 34c | 425.5$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.14 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 57c | 358.12$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.99 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 58c | 333.2$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.94 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…24babacked Yes | 41c | 308.59$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed No | 62c | 264$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8e…c096backed Yes | 35c | 242.86$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 59c | 232$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.96 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 60c | 216$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.56 | 240 | 47.1%113 W · 127 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1e…49d9backed Yes | 40c | 175.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…b6ddbacked No | 59c | 159.32$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.32 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…d9e5backed Yes | 42c | 140.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Yes | 40c | 129.05$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked No | 66c | 126$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…4162backed No | 58c | 124$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 59c | 114.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5815…36f7backed Yes | 42c | 103.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed No | 57c | 99.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 60c | 82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed No | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed No | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -7.9wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fa…c2acbacked Yes | 42c | 79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked No | 62c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b5…4edbbacked Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff92…f22cbacked Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2dd…304cbacked Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 34c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 225 | 47.6%107 W · 118 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 59c | 58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 383 | 56.7%217 W · 166 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea3b…6a7bbacked Yes | 42c | 57.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…b084backed No | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf26…609fbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…e13ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4595…2a8bbacked Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf061…2572backed No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8563…9b9bbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…0a3cbacked Yes | 43c | 45.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5eab…89dcbacked Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefa5…b417backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…04b1backed Yes | 40c | 25.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5627…577bbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ca…c3c9backed No | 60c | 20.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 283 | 57.2%162 W · 121 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Palmeiras beat FC Porto?this page
- Will FC Porto beat Palmeiras?No won
- Will Palmeiras vs. FC Porto end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.