Champions League · resolved market
Will FC Porto beat Palmeiras?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6aff712e4ddce672b6eda9a7bb719b6d798bf96d7afff1777ffd49e93566e1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc58d…9373backed No | 71c | 15,509$10,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,528.73 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 29c | 11,281$3,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,271.51 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 254 | 50%127 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 70c | 1,878$1,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.75 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Yes | 29c | 1,706$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.87 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…b6ddbacked Yes | 30c | 1,337$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed No | 72c | 1,250$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.99 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee6…6887backed Yes | 25c | 1,100$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaf…e782backed Yes | 29c | 957.14$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 71c | 840.99$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.57 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 29c | 823.45$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.1 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 68c | 763.6$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.23 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked No | 65c | 647$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.45 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d5…ac1ebacked Yes | 29c | 639.59$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.48 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 64c | 638.78$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.96 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89fc…b5c2backed Yes | 28c | 499.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…a286backed Yes | 31c | 483.87$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 17c | 399.49$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 64c | 364$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.04 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d07…35e6backed No | 72c | 363.64$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.64 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe1…3b9ebacked Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf081…ca5fbacked Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ee…fb4fbacked Yes | 30c | 333.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a4…d4c9backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b7…49bcbacked Yes | 30c | 298.6$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…a44ebacked No | 71c | 270.96$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 71c | 257.27$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.76 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a1…af66backed Yes | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 71c | 210$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 383 | 56.7%217 W · 166 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked Yes | 28c | 157$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked Yes | 30c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6b…4ca1backed Yes | 29c | 148.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 32c | 145.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 264 | 43.9%116 W · 148 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 69c | 145$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -14.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0994…cd2dbacked Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf7…de52backed Yes | 30c | 127.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20e2…6bb2backed Yes | 29c | 115.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…f332backed Yes | 33c | 111.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd18…a458backed Yes | 24c | 111.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked No | 71c | 103$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…e316backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Yes | 30c | 94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 228 | 47.8%109 W · 119 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 30c | 89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 240 | 47.1%113 W · 127 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 283 | 57.2%162 W · 121 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x039a…b09dbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…dd40backed Yes | 25c | 60.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked No | 72c | 60.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +63%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e125backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 72c | 58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4116…330abacked Yes | 32c | 56.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…6941backed Yes | 29c | 51.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…d8cebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 70c | 43.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 225 | 47.6%107 W · 118 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 29c | 37.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…1692backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab2…e698backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eab…89dcbacked No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Porto beat Palmeiras?this page
- Will Palmeiras beat FC Porto?No won
- Will Palmeiras vs. FC Porto end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.