TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump sign mineral deal without Zelenskyy apology?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$973,016
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,045,304

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $973,016 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 327 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6718…80d1backed No2c63,593$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.19825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed No1c48,329$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.553514.3%5 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick17cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d03…31f1backed Yes63c33,654$21,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,451.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc3…f339backed No37c33,654$12,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,451.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f96…1da6backed Yes57c31,706$18,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,633.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb953…0ce9backed No43c31,706$13,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,633.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes79c30,691$24,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,406.412965.5%19 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No17c29,240$4,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,981.4515125.2%38 W · 113 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfab8…a6d6backed Yes49c24,425$11,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,456.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ee4…fb16backed No51c24,425$12,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,456.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x257f…b3b4backed Yes62c23,400$14,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,8921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea2…67dfbacked No38c23,400$8,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,89210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a06…201bbacked No1c22,725$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.852321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No31c17,302$5,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,435.9126835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed No1c11,413$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.892441.7%10 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+87.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x51f9…603dbacked No0c11,367$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes72c11,042$7,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,064.163253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed No42c10,484$4,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,431.775127.5%14 W · 37 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes56c9,658$5,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,286.223119.4%6 W · 25 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-63.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No1c8,690$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.643745.9%17 W · 20 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+20.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes58c8,653$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,652.82429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-55.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed No0c8,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32180%0 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No19c7,215$1,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,388.411850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccdc…567bbacked No14c6,739$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.1825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed No1c6,160$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.951127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-40.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes40c5,876$2,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,500.25988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.32per pick57cpaid+51.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No61c5,844$3,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,535.813537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed No35c5,073$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,769.79234.3%1 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.20per pick24cpaid-71%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes70c4,910$3,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,461.944045%18 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes63c4,658$2,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,721.391428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-58.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa638…6318backed Yes66c4,376$2,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.33977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick69cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes76c4,359$3,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.629138.5%35 W · 56 L+6.9wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+67%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x440d…55e6backed Yes60c4,288$2,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,726.06742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No25c4,248$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.463920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed No16c4,234$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6611526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-50.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No1c4,050$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked No38c3,913$1,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,467.884852.1%25 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes54c3,868$2,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,763.393164.5%20 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No0c3,816$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.454443.2%19 W · 25 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No31c3,711$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.933839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-30.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc8d…5232backed No1c3,661$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.611172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed No43c3,508$1,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,523.89170%0 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No41c3,474$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,416.36729.7%7 W · 65 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed Yes53c3,213$1,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,497.441687.5%14 W · 2 L+4.4wins+0.28per pick60cpaid+63.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x64d7…73a1backed Yes76c3,100$2,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7511872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+37.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf652…56afbacked No29c3,000$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8701030%3 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-52.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed Yes70c2,811$1,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.762272.7%16 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb843…1b3fbacked No1c2,752$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ab5…ba4abacked No33c2,673$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.0360%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2964…ea1ebacked No7c2,635$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.21010%1 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-70.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No32c2,635$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.425528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed Yes48c2,555$1,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.242050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes41c2,461$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,451.723438.2%13 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No33c2,230$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.282650%13 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No40c2,203$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.124533.3%15 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-45.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x335d…c9c3backed No45c2,112$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.492740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc256…c7b9backed No50c2,008$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes50c1,986$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.536933.3%23 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed No2c1,822$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.881963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes63c1,579$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.69037.8%34 W · 56 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked No12c1,535$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.783953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked No33c1,478$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.567821.8%17 W · 61 L-0.3wins0.00per pick22cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18f…294cbacked No58c1,467$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.672832.1%9 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick21cpaid+148.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes65c1,449$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.774656.5%26 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes32c1,408$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.256639.4%26 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes69c1,407$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.4410137.6%38 W · 63 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6115…2a89backed No31c1,395$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.4540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9cf…75d1backed No33c1,329$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.58520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-67.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed No30c1,322$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.44420.5%9 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36a6…52c7backed No38c1,321$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.4250%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed No25c1,276$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.956949.3%34 W · 35 L+9.8wins+0.14per pick35cpaid+35.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No28c1,271$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.739429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e55…2b2abacked No40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick32cpaid-81.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe0ae…9b16backed No30c1,218$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.811533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes72c1,204$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.1212937.2%48 W · 81 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No35c1,190$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.115855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed No60c1,149$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.014060%24 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4721…b6d6backed No12c1,140$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No48c1,100$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.685632.1%18 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked Yes77c1,100$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.21728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick57cpaid-55.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6830…5258backed No34c1,035$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35140%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8fd7…eb50backed No38c1,016$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.911136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes73c999.79$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.0415451.3%79 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes78c987.51$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.473250%16 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No23c979.23$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.22850%4 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+239.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xae06…8acebacked No17c974.37$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4716…5b50backed No70c940.78$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.3640%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2144…558fbacked No49c921.2$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.8530%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No2c911.25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6111530.4%35 W · 80 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d31…9862backed Yes63c898.19$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.33520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-68.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37ad…c4d5backed No37c821.8$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+72.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefa8…c82bbacked Yes61c814.7$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.88475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+42.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed No37c812.36$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.284139%16 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No31c776.33$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.241736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e56…1825backed No43c717.97$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.08450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+21.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2384…3e0bbacked No4c700$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285639.3%22 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x22cc…ef97backed No23c674.03$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.163718.9%7 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-56.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No17c671.61$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.526336.5%23 W · 40 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bac…f238backed Yes64c671.06$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.15450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf587…1419backed No35c655.28$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.48333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+85.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.