China Taiwan · resolved market
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb1531b00e984865530f13e4ce35bcbc7d71615af98827b5e9aee2ca2984b626
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,364,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,496,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,364,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 662 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 8c | 1,500,100$120,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120,620.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa501…1ca6backed Yes | 0c | 473,996$1,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,895.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2d…0269backed Yes | 0c | 473,996$1,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,895.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f2…678ebacked Yes | 4c | 357,072$12,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,574.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…3321backed Yes | 0c | 316,338$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad0…258abacked Yes | 0c | 304,058$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 12c | 253,672$31,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,093.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes | 6c | 160,562$10,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,325.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…848ebacked Yes | 9c | 135,525$12,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,618.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a7…9e8dbacked Yes | 1c | 116,702$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe253…f4dbbacked Yes | 11c | 112,967$12,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,458.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked Yes | 0c | 103,861$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes | 12c | 100,000$12,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3c…833dbacked Yes | 12c | 85,249$10,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,246.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b68…2c57backed Yes | 3c | 78,505$2,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,668.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea3…6d4ebacked Yes | 3c | 75,490$1,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,895.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 1c | 69,289$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 67,081$1,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.31 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…3843backed Yes | 14c | 50,651$7,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,306.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea8…a5c8backed Yes | 9c | 49,792$4,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,410.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes | 3c | 46,144$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x059b…b926backed Yes | 14c | 43,106$5,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,994.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaade…ae6cbacked Yes | 12c | 34,945$4,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,147.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210e…f469backed Yes | 4c | 33,211$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4459…57e6backed Yes | 3c | 32,071$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 29,135$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.2 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 11c | 29,088$3,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,227.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb24a…def2backed Yes | 2c | 26,926$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…aeddbacked Yes | 12c | 26,095$3,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,131.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x283c…7c7bbacked Yes | 4c | 25,861$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 10c | 24,921$2,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,553.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 11c | 23,917$2,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,546.75 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 9c | 22,950$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,069.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19c1…708fbacked Yes | 9c | 22,890$2,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,060.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbb…a052backed Yes | 1c | 21,726$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 20,966$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 2c | 20,924$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.81 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…752abacked Yes | 17c | 20,781$3,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,635 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…f143backed Yes | 1c | 20,632$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x979d…fcfabacked Yes | 4c | 20,148$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d9ebbacked Yes | 12c | 20,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…69b7backed Yes | 16c | 19,684$3,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,212.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe181…e457backed Yes | 1c | 19,437$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecc…6ee0backed Yes | 14c | 18,606$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,649.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…625bbacked Yes | 9c | 18,033$1,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,692.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…268bbacked Yes | 14c | 17,939$2,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,582.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 13c | 17,436$2,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,255.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…16a1backed Yes | 2c | 15,003$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 4c | 14,942$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed4f…e25abacked Yes | 9c | 13,398$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.79 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f36…cc52backed Yes | 12c | 13,304$1,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 13,121$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.69 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +286.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 13,001$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374b…6772backed Yes | 0c | 12,811$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6458…e9a6backed Yes | 8c | 12,484$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a3…6951backed Yes | 2c | 12,313$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900a…416abacked Yes | 13c | 12,077$1,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,570.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1962…aa3ebacked Yes | 8c | 11,902$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.57 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda3c…0273backed Yes | 4c | 11,550$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213d…38e8backed Yes | 0c | 11,347$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 10,933$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 15c | 10,570$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,585.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa691…4091backed Yes | 18c | 10,486$1,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,917.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed Yes | 2c | 10,225$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9137…238dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee5…7bf8backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc893…b7b0backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x903f…e556backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…1559backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes | 9c | 9,867$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 11c | 9,602$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.21 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1dd1backed Yes | 16c | 9,178$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8225…c4a8backed Yes | 11c | 9,127$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe352…f259backed Yes | 7c | 9,000$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…928fbacked Yes | 12c | 8,691$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b2…4418backed Yes | 12c | 8,680$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6c…64efbacked Yes | 14c | 8,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb6…2124backed Yes | 9c | 7,778$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…596abacked Yes | 0c | 7,539$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 7,263$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4341…4a4cbacked Yes | 8c | 7,163$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbf…cf91backed Yes | 1c | 6,627$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…aab0backed Yes | 15c | 6,612$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…5ec4backed Yes | 12c | 6,500$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe535…96d3backed Yes | 1c | 6,465$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57e9…12ebbacked Yes | 9c | 6,333$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeec…4455backed Yes | 1c | 6,266$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9570…c70abacked Yes | 2c | 6,064$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d02…70e0backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 9c | 5,960$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…4e2fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,882$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fb…6139backed Yes | 3c | 5,879$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 0c | 5,695$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…9682backed Yes | 3c | 5,691$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 1c | 5,658$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes | 12c | 5,611$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d2…000abacked Yes | 10c | 5,601$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.