Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50587384085ae6ee58a24d034bb05a8694ff8532a724dc0bc9fa75b5e0a09615
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,271$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.74 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,094$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.02 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe12a…a77abacked Yes | 37c | 811.87$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 28c | 794.66$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.27 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 62c | 601.62$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.68 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…2e07backed Yes | 35c | 591.65$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5e…3873backed No | 71c | 579$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.72 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 72c | 500$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe585…91b5backed No | 70c | 429.97$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a7…0792backed Yes | 36c | 408.11$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 25c | 354$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.61 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b2…2ae9backed Yes | 33c | 303.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…19bbbacked Yes | 33c | 303.03$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00be…5acabacked No | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 28c | 293.1$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.07 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…cf2bbacked Yes | 35c | 282.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c9…b44ebacked No | 71c | 280.01$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 17c | 279.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…5e16backed No | 59c | 260$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d7…896dbacked No | 70c | 229.39$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x675a…0551backed No | 72c | 220.68$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…2a59backed Yes | 32c | 217.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked No | 71c | 216.06$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed No | 69c | 202.75$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…9949backed No | 67c | 199.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 28c | 185.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 181.39$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbac…d62ebacked Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…81c0backed No | 70c | 157.9$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked No | 65c | 155$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 29c | 153.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed No | 70c | 146.34$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…3570backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…4d4ebacked No | 71c | 141.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…d86bbacked No | 72c | 138.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe591…9fc8backed No | 75c | 133.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb45…1a6bbacked No | 70c | 128.57$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…138bbacked Yes | 32c | 124.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 113.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 31c | 113.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15d…3e46backed Yes | 45c | 111.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 17c | 111.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca26…9b38backed Yes | 39c | 107.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fb…3758backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 28c | 105$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd02e…4cf2backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…f82cbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 14c | 97.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 61c | 94.53$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed No | 66c | 91.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed No | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed No | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeff…03f2backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x554b…82e6backed Yes | 40c | 84.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac8c…415cbacked No | 59c | 82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 31c | 79.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5242…f82abacked Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b9…ea98backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd6…23f8backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed No | 59c | 63.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c03…eac9backed No | 60c | 63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfabf…c681backed Yes | 40c | 62.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x428b…25c0backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736c…2b16backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0877…fa92backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 29c | 51.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5da7…1474backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8005…abc0backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf656…942bbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…e498backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…ed7dbacked Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked No | 58c | 49.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…e241backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…e13ebacked Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…96eabacked Yes | 46c | 43.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2a…d0a0backed No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c47…c146backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b42…92a1backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 56c | 39.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed No | 67c | 37.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…7078backed Yes | 40c | 37.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…bd3abacked No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a82…a163backed Yes | 29c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…c55abacked Yes | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…d33bbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe591…0f80backed No | 64c | 31.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea1…4b8dbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc067…0eb9backed Yes | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c42…66b5backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb0…6367backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f54…cd2abacked No | 71c | 28.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c3…f815backed Yes | 41c | 26.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063c…de6abacked No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…f4f4backed No | 69c | 20.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Dissent" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Edging" 3+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Feedback" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Mandate" 6+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Possibility" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Stagflation" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Update" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.