TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Powell say "Feedback" during October press conference?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,723
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,656

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,723 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes24c745.39$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.892917.2%5 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-38.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7d63…d39ebacked No47c685$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20a6…268abacked No45c680$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5951…6c98backed No46c672$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee1d…31b0backed No45c671.2$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f62…23d7backed No45c671.1$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8098…ac08backed No45c671$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d4d…0b48backed No45c671$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6406…1ce5backed No45c671$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2be3…5705backed No47c671$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe153…ef3cbacked No45c670.4$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d9e…2360backed No45c670.4$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b27…1414backed No45c670.3$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14f8…778abacked No45c670.2$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc6…fe0abacked No45c670.2$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa56f…e0f7backed No45c670.2$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf412…891fbacked No45c670.2$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef23…917bbacked No45c670$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50ee…f581backed No45c670$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e9…caf3backed No47c670$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick34cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf803…649ebacked No45c670$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ecf…216bbacked No45c670$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f36…5626backed No46c670$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ae…e6c7backed No45c669.9$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee8…3365backed No45c669$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa48…5bbfbacked No76c658.05$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.05742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No53c649.35$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.635453.7%29 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed No63c548.1$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.257265.3%47 W · 25 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7ee…4e39backed Yes42c416.47$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.93633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-45.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No68c336.64$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.4512941.1%53 W · 76 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x788f…19bbbacked Yes32c316.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10090%0 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes38c286.86$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.768626.7%23 W · 63 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x217e…3a4cbacked No69c274$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.121050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes38c250.52$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.267243.1%31 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe14f…c1a0backed No57c250$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.51855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes53c242.33$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.32839.3%11 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbe…3f2cbacked Yes55c205$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Yes49c202.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No61c200.36$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.489853.1%52 W · 46 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9856…8d02backed Yes49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52e4…7d32backed No57c167.06$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.261163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed No45c145.54$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.36837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick27cpaid-36.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No53c139.08$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.776355.6%35 W · 28 L+9.6wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed No60c138$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.933447.1%16 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes11c135.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5910324.3%25 W · 78 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed No44c130.72$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.12532%8 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2055…4542backed Yes43c130$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-79.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb195…6f85backed Yes53c114.24$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-57.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes38c113.41$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.753751.4%19 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8bc…fa0fbacked Yes44c110.43$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c8…5ababacked No51c105$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.141172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+21.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e40…dadfbacked Yes51c101$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44b8…22aebacked No52c101$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3358…617fbacked No53c100.4$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x611a…24b5backed Yes51c100.2$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2569…1d90backed Yes53c100.2$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66a1…844fbacked No54c100.2$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb38c…be8fbacked No53c100.1$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd540…cc4ebacked Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1035…e881backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d96…7374backed No54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dda…a8b4backed No54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb87c…0de1backed Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79b4…005abacked Yes52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8af5…0e53backed No55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd544…4266backed No53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb61…4eb2backed No52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12b9…8529backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef36…3e1dbacked No51c99.98$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b0e…5ffabacked Yes51c99.96$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c98…4bd9backed Yes51c99.9$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6472…ee97backed Yes51c99.9$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6dc…58f7backed No55c99.2$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4088…99dbbacked No51c99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08a2…8443backed No76c98.68$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.68475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1b0…d33bbacked Yes40c96.25$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.08850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c1f…6823backed Yes33c76.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.37450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93c0…35c8backed No45c73$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x967c…9422backed No45c72.8$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddcf…ba06backed No45c72$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a0…f8cebacked No45c72$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes34c60.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.314712.8%6 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5242…f82abacked Yes44c56.2$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-48.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1116…82ebbacked No50c51$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9774…817cbacked No50c50.2$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ae6…dd45backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143930.8%12 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-13.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x67cd…5066backed Yes37c45.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.67520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-64.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No51c42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.582568%17 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x325a…dbb4backed Yes40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe18b…8324backed Yes33c36.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-60.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed Yes49c34.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1780%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f56…9302backed No68c33.64$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.641717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-66.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf312…beb0backed Yes45c33.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed No54c32.73$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.023043.3%13 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c42…66b5backed No65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.771643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1faa…406ebacked Yes49c30.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-48.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x247d…c55abacked No49c28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.281662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes39c27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5119026.3%50 W · 140 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea1…4b8dbacked No75c26.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.66540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.