Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Sorry" during October press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcc7c4803feda31c4e9f08213428a435e3032f14c9cf7d0f44b5ec36770bf99c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked No | 32c | 1,149$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.64 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe280…f4d9backed Yes | 69c | 1,000$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.64 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 5c | 866.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…2e07backed No | 38c | 793.2$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 74c | 731.22$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.39 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 66c | 700$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5697…c7bebacked No | 31c | 639.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 29c | 494.4$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.88 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 33c | 451.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 74c | 440$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.7 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…aba8backed No | 30c | 402.93$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 74c | 365$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.8 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed Yes | 69c | 326.6$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.29 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 26c | 314.28$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ee…4e39backed No | 33c | 302.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed No | 35c | 286.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +27%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 26c | 284.84$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.47 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 70c | 266.55$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.89 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 57c | 222.18$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.62 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed No | 31c | 222$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 64c | 199.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…802ebacked Yes | 72c | 188$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 67c | 160$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 74c | 152.61$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 73c | 149.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6714…b0b1backed Yes | 70c | 149.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…baa0backed Yes | 74c | 134.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea4…15dbbacked No | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b6…41d8backed No | 8c | 132.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea1…4b8dbacked No | 32c | 126.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 27c | 125.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 74c | 125$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…4d48backed Yes | 72c | 112.91$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…986abacked Yes | 69c | 102.01$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…ec41backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9c…ad87backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbda…4faebacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5025…dd30backed Yes | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 26c | 85.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8627…1630backed No | 31c | 80.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 67c | 73.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f56…9302backed No | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9963…db84backed Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb76a…716dbacked No | 36c | 65.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked No | 30c | 62.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 67c | 62.03$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e37…5227backed No | 33c | 61.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…37b6backed No | 33c | 61.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…40e2backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…c652backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 26c | 59.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a5…8805backed Yes | 65c | 59.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c42…66b5backed No | 34c | 58.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf01…a178backed No | 34c | 58.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…a584backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb28c…be33backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…8529backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1158…03f7backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2907…c1eebacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 24c | 47.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…c7a7backed No | 26c | 45.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f5…828abacked No | 42c | 41.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…96eabacked Yes | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 73c | 40.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e30…3adfbacked Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df9…ee98backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ede…783ebacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…caebbacked Yes | 74c | 26.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb195…6f85backed Yes | 75c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 63c | 25.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 36cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…fcfcbacked Yes | 73c | 23.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…c55abacked Yes | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed81…6ae6backed Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6c…b3d2backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +5.6wins | +0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…dbb4backed Yes | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a70…3fc8backed Yes | 72c | 18.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…d33bbacked Yes | 71c | 15.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 76c | 15.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during October press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Dissent" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Edging" 3+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Feedback" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Mandate" 6+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Possibility" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Stagflation" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Update" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.