Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Powell say "Pandemic" during October press conference?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb44407c2aa349c6b64662b6ba0d909e83d9b2371597e99a7b9e2519e34486b3

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 29, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $15,502
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $14,536

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,502 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xde04…fa37backed No	32c	2,654$838 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,815.63	67	17.9%12 W · 55 L	-5.5wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-65.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc5e…3873backed No	71c	1,023$730 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$292.39	5	100%5 W · 0 L	+1.7wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+51.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe280…f4d9backed Yes	71c	900$639 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$639	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.6wins	+0.20per pick	55cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No	26c	819.42$212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$607.66	129	41.1%53 W · 76 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe14f…c1a0backed Yes	25c	600$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+2.0wins	+0.11per pick	45cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes	66c	599.99$393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392.99	68	42.6%29 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes	65c	580$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375.74	98	53.1%52 W · 46 L	+4.5wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No	30c	549.02$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$386.38	86	26.7%23 W · 63 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x267c…9b16backed Yes	70c	494.98$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.04	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+45.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes	67c	440.31$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.19	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+4.4wins	+0.14per pick	44cpaid	+54.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes	65c	431.06$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.1	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No	26c	413$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$307.61	57	49.1%28 W · 29 L	+5.3wins	+0.09per pick	40cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdeff…03f2backed No	35c	390$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254.86	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.3wins	+0.31per pick	44cpaid	+61.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa48…5bbfbacked Yes	71c	350.37$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.21per pick	64cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No	28c	340$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$243.96	50	28%14 W · 36 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes	67c	328.6$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.73	63	55.6%35 W · 28 L	+9.6wins	+0.15per pick	40cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Yes	66c	306.99$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.21	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5697…c7bebacked No	33c	304.55$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204.55	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes	66c	300$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	-11%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes	76c	299.99$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.99	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-2.4wins	-0.17per pick	31cpaid	-78.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdea4…15dbbacked No	34c	298.06$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$198.06	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed No	34c	295.04$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$195.04	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+2.2wins	+0.15per pick	19cpaid	+27%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes	77c	285.85$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.41	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.17per pick	54cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c84…9d2bbacked No	36c	277.78$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.78	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.64per pick	36cpaid	+177.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	66c	275.97$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.19	190	26.3%50 W · 140 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes	65c	263.74$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.73	72	65.3%47 W · 25 L	+4.7wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes	28c	254.91$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.38	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	+7.0wins	+0.15per pick	33cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfa20…fd0dbacked Yes	70c	240$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.4	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b4d…1a55backed No	32c	238.67$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.88	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes	9c	237.72$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.39	94	14.9%14 W · 80 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93c6…90d0backed No	43c	230.06$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130.06	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.12per pick	28cpaid	+31.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No	29c	200.2$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.55	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No	33c	200$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.3	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f79…cccdbacked Yes	70c	200$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.70per pick	70cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52e4…7d32backed No	34c	188.82$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.62	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.12per pick	52cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90bf…99ebbacked No	41c	183$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.3	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-72%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes	67c	179.75$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.63	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No	29c	160$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.59	52	30.8%16 W · 36 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-43%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes	67c	150.17$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.61	47	23.4%11 W · 36 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	32cpaid	-55.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes	30c	150$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-21%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc2…5003backed Yes	67c	150$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.5	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c23…0266backed Yes	67c	149.98$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.49	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes	67c	149.54$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.29	72	43.1%31 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ef…81c0backed No	34c	147.38$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.38	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+94.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x81dd…90f6backed No	35c	143.57$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.57	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x62f7…129abacked No	35c	142.86$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.86	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.65per pick	35cpaid	+185.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac8c…415cbacked No	30c	141$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.7	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.33per pick	34cpaid	+67.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2574…83dbbacked Yes	74c	134.74$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	56cpaid	-41%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bc8…37adbacked No	34c	117.41$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.94	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f3…3595backed No	33c	115$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.05	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5481…2841backed Yes	73c	109.07$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.7wins	-0.24per pick	53cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd14a…fef3backed No	30c	100$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+146%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes	65c	98.9$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.29	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes	31c	82.36$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.53	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	33cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked No	26c	80$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.2	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2759…09bfbacked Yes	72c	74.04$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.61	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	51cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed Yes	69c	73.36$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.51	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed No	24c	67.56$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.35	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8627…1630backed No	33c	61.21$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.21	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.7wins	-0.24per pick	52cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7133backed Yes	72c	60$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.2	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes	68c	60$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.8	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.1wins	-0.21per pick	51cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a70…3fc8backed No	30c	60$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.3	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+35.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe51…c0d3backed No	33c	59.88$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.88	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	21cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x700c…9368backed No	35c	57.88$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.88	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-32%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x156b…baa0backed No	36c	55.61$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.61	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c42…66b5backed No	36c	55.56$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.56	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No	28c	54.23$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.23	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6752…fafbbacked No	28c	50$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed No	25c	50$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.5	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	+55.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0377…e498backed Yes	74c	50$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.37per pick	62cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x59a3…961abacked No	31c	48.55$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.55	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	+27.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5da7…1474backed Yes	66c	45$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.7	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.31per pick	56cpaid	-59.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f3d…14f2backed Yes	69c	43.57$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.69per pick	69cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	69c	40.57$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.8	181	35.4%64 W · 117 L	-16.4wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No	29c	40$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.4	27	63%17 W · 10 L	+6.1wins	+0.22per pick	40cpaid	+48.5%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes	71c	40$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.4	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	-4.1wins	-0.16per pick	39cpaid	-61.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8266…c472backed No	30c	40$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.6wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+132.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3da…d974backed No	31c	40$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.6	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bf…18b4backed No	34c	32.29$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.46	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.66per pick	34cpaid	+198.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No	36c	30$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.14	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x217e…3a4cbacked Yes	71c	30$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.3	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa58c…a1e2backed Yes	66c	30$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb710…fe3ebacked Yes	69c	29.12$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.69per pick	69cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed Yes	72c	29$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.88	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	67c	27.09$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.26	240	46.3%111 W · 129 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdff5…22bcbacked Yes	76c	26.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	78cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32c3…dbd0backed Yes	66c	25$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.64per pick	64cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x325a…dbb4backed Yes	67c	24.98$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.74	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda38…3baabacked Yes	67c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.67per pick	67cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe860…c3d2backed Yes	71c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b7f…a00cbacked Yes	65c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce3…b304backed Yes	70c	19.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.99	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x247d…c55abacked Yes	74c	18$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.32	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	58cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1739…1263backed Yes	67c	15$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	63cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Powell say "Pandemic" during October press conference?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

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