Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8f2144f21378f644b9811847b566303cbbf945075c2484b32255d5deef4269b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf515…0805backed Yes | 64c | 240.75$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +85%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 68c | 235$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 34c | 232.1$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.34 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd6…23f8backed Yes | 68c | 147.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…37adbacked No | 46c | 144.81$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 32c | 143.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 38c | 137$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…0266backed No | 34c | 135.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…c59dbacked Yes | 59c | 121.18$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 51c | 96.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 51c | 96.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c42…66b5backed No | 48c | 84.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67cd…5066backed Yes | 56c | 71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 61.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eaa…721bbacked No | 37c | 58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 26c | 55.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 43c | 50.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7856…411cbacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 26c | 45.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…11fbbacked No | 35c | 43.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 63c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…c652backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a4…f692backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked No | 33c | 38.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…c55abacked No | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccb…e4eabacked No | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1739…1263backed No | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…ea3fbacked Yes | 74c | 27.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…c3d2backed Yes | 72c | 24.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…3a4cbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8266…c472backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8db0…4cb0backed Yes | 68c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…3325backed Yes | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Dissent" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Edging" 3+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Feedback" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Mandate" 6+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Possibility" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Stagflation" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Update" during October press conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.