Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Mandate" 6+ times during October press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e823547509f0481a9009e22140f18caa4c3308a3ed4fea5bea2be9e2bc53256
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked No | 42c | 476.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d20…9696backed No | 35c | 430$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…f81cbacked No | 35c | 400$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 58c | 397.82$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.74 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 29c | 386.55$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e28…e313backed Yes | 65c | 305$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 33c | 301.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.33 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked Yes | 70c | 283.7$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 26c | 278.57$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.86 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dca…f044backed Yes | 65c | 270$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6450…d273backed No | 35c | 255$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 70c | 242.98$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.97 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 32c | 240$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.4 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf274…2b66backed Yes | 71c | 236.33$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b34…a1b9backed Yes | 65c | 225$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 34c | 203.97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.92 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd601…fceebacked Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30aa…2bddbacked Yes | 58c | 199.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 42c | 188.09$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.09 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed No | 29c | 177.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.3 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 30c | 173.43$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.4 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…0805backed No | 29c | 172.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +85%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8c…68dfbacked Yes | 65c | 155$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8309…62b1backed Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…3066backed Yes | 65c | 130$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 71c | 116$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…9891backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb195…6f85backed Yes | 66c | 90.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed No | 29c | 88.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…90d0backed No | 23c | 85.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2900…5479backed No | 30c | 82.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 69c | 80.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…e348backed Yes | 69c | 72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…c652backed Yes | 77c | 70$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c84…4e36backed No | 31c | 65.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c42…66b5backed No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 28c | 62.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 61.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 31c | 61.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 77c | 60.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df0…7791backed No | 31c | 52.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 19cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked No | 30c | 48.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed Yes | 69c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x807b…d059backed Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 28c | 38.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8627…1630backed Yes | 69c | 36.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…8811backed Yes | 78c | 30.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…dbb4backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6910…fbedbacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…a872backed Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…0a3abacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed No | 47c | 22.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…df4ebacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6c…b3d2backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…c3d2backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…c55abacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 68c | 15.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x927d…13a7backed Yes | 75c | 14.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Mandate" 6+ times during October press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Dissent" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Edging" 3+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Feedback" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Possibility" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Stagflation" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Update" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.