Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x120e9fdc6cffdf92f2b72ac97146560254997c313c992bfbc2c5811a85e86765
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked No | 12c | 6,478$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 75c | 3,705$2,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.89 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…f82cbacked No | 5c | 1,932$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 76c | 1,810$1,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 77c | 1,704$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.99 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 3c | 1,695$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.53 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…7935backed Yes | 23c | 1,500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 1c | 1,270$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7255…67e0backed No | 32c | 1,229$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc975…2c68backed Yes | 61c | 1,099$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 28c | 1,018$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.53 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 12c | 766.86$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.91 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 21c | 723.86$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.89 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 67c | 635.87$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.38 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 69c | 618.03$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.76 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed No | 9c | 562.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 78c | 557.42$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.75 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1adb…5e2dbacked No | 71c | 557$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c9…b44ebacked No | 42c | 546.31$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed No | 32c | 544.44$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…5bbfbacked No | 38c | 524.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d13…a252backed No | 12c | 495.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked No | 27c | 487.48$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…4a9bbacked No | 9c | 469.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 20c | 466.42$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.79 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 75c | 422.47$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.62 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 22c | 409$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.02 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +9.2wins | +0.44per pick | 14cpaid | +420%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed No | 27c | 403.14$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 67c | 378.98$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.35 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked No | 14c | 374.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd53d…2911backed No | 15c | 370.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 57c | 368.52$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.52 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…2d86backed Yes | 69c | 342.09$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…b68cbacked Yes | 56c | 341.87$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -29%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked No | 30c | 335$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed No | 24c | 317.91$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.49 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5697…c7bebacked No | 34c | 294.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 37c | 271.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.74 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 61c | 256.68$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.31 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked No | 62c | 250$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00be…5acabacked No | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee8…523bbacked No | 26c | 228.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed No | 12c | 228$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…a1e2backed Yes | 78c | 227.5$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932f…aeb6backed Yes | 78c | 224.83$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59f6…2f2ebacked No | 22c | 208.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…2af9backed No | 17c | 207.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x675a…0551backed No | 66c | 202.14$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1d…e3c3backed No | 25c | 200.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06df…3b05backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…2841backed No | 53c | 192.53$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 75c | 190.4$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed No | 20c | 190.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec4e…d9dbbacked No | 16c | 185.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 22c | 183.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 9c | 181.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 25c | 173.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 16c | 168.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 24c | 165.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc875…3d31backed Yes | 78c | 160$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb45…1a6bbacked No | 45c | 159.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd6…be9dbacked No | 12c | 158.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…3570backed No | 32c | 156.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b9…ea98backed No | 31c | 155.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb76a…716dbacked No | 36c | 143.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed No | 20c | 138.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 29c | 137.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb961…b69ebacked Yes | 73c | 136.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db0…4cb0backed No | 14c | 133.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2574…83dbbacked Yes | 75c | 133.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 75c | 129$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…e7d8backed No | 40c | 126$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 18c | 125.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1035…e881backed No | 28c | 107.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…b622backed No | 21c | 107$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fb…7d8cbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Yes | 42c | 95.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4b…bb8abacked No | 16c | 95.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 67c | 93.03$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…ed71backed No | 32c | 90.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e3…98f6backed No | 24c | 87.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed No | 29c | 85.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 71c | 83.22$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 21c | 75.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…bd3abacked No | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 33c | 71.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…f7f0backed No | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a70…7057backed No | 23c | 69.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…138bbacked No | 45c | 67.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8b…fc4abacked Yes | 66c | 62.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736c…2b16backed No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd6…23f8backed Yes | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cd…10f4backed No | 22c | 56.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…d86bbacked No | 45c | 55.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…90d0backed No | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea1…4b8dbacked No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd50e…6067backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Dissent" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Edging" 3+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Feedback" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Mandate" 6+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Possibility" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Stagflation" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Update" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.