Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Possibility" during October press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dd4332f61a7d0219218babb3978c64438e9eff63512ab87f8731e770550dea3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed No | 32c | 1,161$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.85 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…f51abacked Yes | 57c | 751.22$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 38c | 619.4$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.39 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 35c | 569.99$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 39c | 532.84$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.1 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f2…e5b6backed Yes | 64c | 478.33$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…0266backed No | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.5 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 33c | 358.83$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.19 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb45…1a6bbacked Yes | 66c | 316.57$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc067…0eb9backed Yes | 59c | 303.25$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 39c | 249.95$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.31 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 31c | 231.77$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 68c | 205$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 42c | 202.31$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ee…a1debacked Yes | 63c | 178.13$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…a3b8backed Yes | 62c | 173.78$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed No | 37c | 173.1$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 39c | 162.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.32 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 35c | 141.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…1404backed Yes | 73c | 137.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067c…2d46backed Yes | 73c | 137.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 38c | 130.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2055…4542backed Yes | 71c | 103$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…29abbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 36c | 99.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 40c | 85.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7878…7975backed No | 37c | 84.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 28c | 83.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ae…0e0ebacked Yes | 64c | 78.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…8529backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a2…8443backed Yes | 67c | 74.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked No | 35c | 73.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc270…dfdebacked Yes | 63c | 73.39$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 69c | 71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc7…2229backed Yes | 60c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 46c | 65.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…7d35backed No | 37c | 59.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 38c | 55.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed No | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f56…9302backed No | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…3a4cbacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…d07ebacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 63c | 49.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…5a89backed Yes | 56c | 49.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x675a…0551backed Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…96eabacked Yes | 63c | 47.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c42…66b5backed No | 44c | 44.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3683…68dbbacked No | 45c | 44.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed Yes | 74c | 44.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…dbb4backed No | 32c | 39.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 37.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1035…e881backed Yes | 56c | 35.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…f003backed No | 34c | 34.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…e5c9backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf14e…86efbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…e241backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…caebbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…2634backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…d33bbacked Yes | 72c | 29.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…7100backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f8…47aabacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 36cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Yes | 66c | 23.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed81…6ae6backed Yes | 66c | 22.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…c55abacked Yes | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c68…2befbacked Yes | 55c | 20.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8266…c472backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9a…8ecebacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5107…4106backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5247…8ae5backed Yes | 65c | 19.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…eb5dbacked Yes | 67c | 16.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…4844backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db0…4cb0backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Possibility" during October press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Dissent" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Edging" 3+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Feedback" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Mandate" 6+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Stagflation" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Update" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.