Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Edging" 3+ times during October press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d4005f861af6b8f5661f285a7bce077a01ea509dd422116ba4e560ea2c0488a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,285$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.21 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -91%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 13c | 993.87$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.14 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 16c | 856.72$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.6 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cb…f46dbacked Yes | 27c | 670.9$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9da5…61d5backed Yes | 18c | 564.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…666ebacked Yes | 12c | 425.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2055…4542backed Yes | 15c | 220$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd601…fceebacked Yes | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5242…f82abacked Yes | 14c | 175.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 65c | 169.88$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7856…411cbacked Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736c…2b16backed Yes | 15c | 137.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…22dbbacked Yes | 15c | 136.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…c7a7backed Yes | 17c | 129.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 68c | 128$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…3e97backed Yes | 18c | 108.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 13c | 98.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 85.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070a…31aabacked Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bc…80f7backed Yes | 19c | 71.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 18c | 70.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 20c | 69.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5908…cbc1backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…26dfbacked No | 79c | 35.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Edging" 3+ times during October press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Dissent" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Feedback" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Mandate" 6+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Possibility" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Stagflation" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Update" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.