Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2bb74c974fec3403715a55cfcfd1954116ae7522c9054c42077d081917b6ff8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 37c | 4,056$1,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.42 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +432.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed No | 78c | 2,300$1,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,793.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 59c | 2,082$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.93 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 48c | 1,772$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.95 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 44c | 1,420$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.1 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5e…3873backed Yes | 64c | 1,359$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…a292backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 36c | 910.55$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.83 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 37c | 908.97$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.26 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 55c | 750$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.5 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked Yes | 61c | 673$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.94 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4af…eac0backed Yes | 62c | 660$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…81e6backed No | 37c | 655.38$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.01 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96e…e5b5backed No | 62c | 647.95$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…5bbfbacked No | 44c | 567.37$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c9…b44ebacked No | 42c | 553.83$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…0266backed Yes | 60c | 520$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.8 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked Yes | 60c | 499.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb5…599dbacked Yes | 63c | 462.5$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 40c | 448.58$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.35 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 31c | 399.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed No | 41c | 375.61$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 64c | 364$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe585…91b5backed Yes | 60c | 340$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 36c | 337.61$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.42 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 37c | 329$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.08 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 39c | 321.64$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.44 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7da…7f7bbacked Yes | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 65c | 284.99$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.34 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked No | 38c | 264.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce3…b304backed Yes | 60c | 264.5$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x675a…0551backed No | 41c | 246.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed No | 41c | 235.67$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.45 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd83a…cdbebacked No | 43c | 234.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 40c | 202.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.18 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 55c | 200$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed No | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd6…23f8backed Yes | 60c | 198.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 35c | 191.63$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 65c | 179.28$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf29f…5ccabacked No | 34c | 173$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2574…83dbbacked Yes | 62c | 161.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd61…ac77backed No | 45c | 160$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…d3adbacked Yes | 64c | 157.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 42c | 156.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed Yes | 64c | 155.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x428b…25c0backed No | 52c | 150.6$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8452…ce2ebacked Yes | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 43c | 150$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…1ab2backed Yes | 65c | 147.1$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed No | 35c | 146.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed No | 41c | 134.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Yes | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 68c | 124$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…3570backed No | 42c | 119.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…559abacked No | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f56…9302backed No | 44c | 114.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 55c | 111.04$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 36c | 111$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked Yes | 63c | 110.68$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 36c | 109.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d5…591bbacked Yes | 58c | 101.63$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fb…7d8cbacked Yes | 63c | 101.49$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 35c | 100.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…3325backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00be…5acabacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…fef3backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +146%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…f82cbacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…a3b8backed No | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 37c | 97.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e42…ca63backed No | 38c | 97.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 38c | 94.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked No | 49c | 93.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed No | 40c | 92.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Yes | 56c | 88.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…8442backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…986abacked Yes | 66c | 83.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…8351backed Yes | 63c | 81.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…7eecbacked Yes | 58c | 81.31$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81dd…90f6backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…8529backed Yes | 62c | 80.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked No | 42c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…9c60backed Yes | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 47c | 79.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…ea3fbacked No | 38c | 79.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 50c | 78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…5954backed Yes | 60c | 77.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…b68cbacked Yes | 52c | 74.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -29%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f6…2f2ebacked No | 39c | 74.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 55c | 73.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…aba8backed Yes | 61c | 71.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 68.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…bd3abacked No | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "Dissent" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Edging" 3+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Feedback" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Mandate" 6+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Possibility" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Stagflation" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Update" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.