Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Dissent" during October press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45a79938ebb9277e22d8159425e7bd0f3afac955ed58963289b2f4d55a61cdd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 43c | 4,655$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,654.08 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 47c | 1,484$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.29 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb604…b046backed No | 1c | 1,086$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…2e07backed No | 54c | 807.94$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 55c | 735$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.97 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…3de4backed Yes | 49c | 617.4$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe280…f4d9backed Yes | 40c | 600$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ed62backed No | 52c | 565$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…5bbfbacked Yes | 74c | 539.58$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 57c | 482.54$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c9…b44ebacked No | 64c | 465.52$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 50c | 446.25$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.5 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 48c | 410$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.59 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed No | 60c | 389.07$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 56c | 350$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.5 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 37c | 349.97$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.48 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 26c | 340.64$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.57 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 65c | 320$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb45…1a6bbacked No | 65c | 308.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00be…5acabacked No | 65c | 250$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0a…8340backed Yes | 33c | 229.7$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed No | 63c | 202.22$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.88 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…0266backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.04 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 52c | 199.89$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.21 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf36…c9eabacked Yes | 50c | 180.8$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 52c | 180$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ad…5a0fbacked Yes | 50c | 179.2$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bb…33edbacked Yes | 50c | 174.4$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 7c | 168.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +9.2wins | +0.44per pick | 14cpaid | +420%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xca4c…fb24backed Yes | 50c | 167.8$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 68c | 167.73$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 35c | 167.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd25e…0607backed Yes | 50c | 166$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…3570backed No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f5…828abacked No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 152$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.2 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…5954backed No | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…81c0backed Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd92c…acdabacked Yes | 73c | 137.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked No | 61c | 129.53$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed No | 66c | 128.66$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…d16dbacked Yes | 38c | 122.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 58c | 113.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed No | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd50e…6067backed No | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 38c | 101.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…7718backed No | 55c | 98.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1f…6823backed Yes | 66c | 97.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed No | 35c | 95.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a28…0972backed No | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…1acdbacked No | 62c | 87.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 22c | 86.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…2841backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 51c | 76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843f…5696backed No | 63c | 72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…db72backed No | 63c | 72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c7…552abacked No | 63c | 72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0942…8e85backed No | 63c | 72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 64c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 27c | 65.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 57.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…a3b8backed No | 64c | 56.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 41c | 54.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes | 49c | 54.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 43c | 54.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…22dbbacked Yes | 38c | 52.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 54c | 52.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…f4f4backed No | 63c | 50.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…09bfbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b42…92a1backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…e498backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2260…ad28backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da7…1474backed No | 59c | 49.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…d33bbacked Yes | 40c | 49.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 52c | 45.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9c…ad87backed Yes | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…ceffbacked Yes | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34a…8251backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…bd3abacked No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…dbb4backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7f…a00cbacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb76a…716dbacked Yes | 65c | 38.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…d86bbacked No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…96eabacked Yes | 38c | 36.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadcb…4b08backed No | 54c | 36.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf312…beb0backed Yes | 42c | 35.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a70…3fc8backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 40c | 34.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed Yes | 46c | 33.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…30a8backed Yes | 42c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…2a96backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb0…6367backed No | 64c | 31.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c42…66b5backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Dissent" during October press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Edging" 3+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Feedback" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Mandate" 6+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Possibility" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Stagflation" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Update" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.