Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa840b73a86f96b0052e7420c5e7fdbfc6ddba53c0a86645640f92dde886cdf40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 14c | 8,482$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.01 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ee…4e39backed No | 22c | 4,464$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82c…620abacked No | 22c | 2,566$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 17c | 2,545$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.49 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 76c | 2,539$1,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.64 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 16c | 2,329$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.55 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…377abacked No | 20c | 1,683$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.01 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe699…b4b3backed No | 22c | 1,394$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 18c | 1,137$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.12 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…19bbbacked No | 18c | 1,133$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 15c | 998.96$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.84 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 79c | 959.95$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.84 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5697…c7bebacked No | 21c | 955.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed No | 15c | 819.22$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.66 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…aa7ebacked No | 19c | 799.95$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 12c | 776.29$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.46 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed No | 21c | 720.7$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4d…1a55backed No | 19c | 668.74$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.06 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 24c | 633.87$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.79 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe585…91b5backed Yes | 80c | 620$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…5febbacked No | 20c | 591.86$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…7d52backed No | 19c | 582$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 79c | 554.99$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.66 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked No | 18c | 527.78$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…12efbacked No | 20c | 512.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…33a1backed No | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 50c | 499.71$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.12 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2f…1a02backed No | 20c | 483.32$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0db…75debacked No | 21c | 472.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4243…35d1backed No | 27c | 460.05$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…5652backed No | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…2123backed No | 23c | 444.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 19c | 442.97$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.51 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…88a5backed No | 17c | 411.67$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 399.95$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…4449backed No | 18c | 386.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53d…2911backed No | 19c | 379.06$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…a8f6backed No | 17c | 372.63$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c95…0ae2backed No | 20c | 357.4$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed No | 25c | 346.24$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 79c | 319.44$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…8f46backed No | 17c | 294.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34a…8251backed No | 17c | 278.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1d…e3c3backed No | 19c | 264.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48a3…2ba3backed No | 19c | 263.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c20…64a2backed No | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…409fbacked Yes | 80c | 249.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…cb1ebacked No | 16c | 247.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…23b0backed No | 20c | 247$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Yes | 79c | 242.14$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…8351backed No | 21c | 240.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c4…d55ebacked No | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2907…c1eebacked No | 19c | 237$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…7935backed Yes | 56c | 233.98$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.41 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…c736backed No | 41c | 231.83$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb7…a750backed No | 22c | 224.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb12…6a49backed No | 18c | 222.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…ee4bbacked No | 17c | 222$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 73c | 218.38$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed No | 12c | 206.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…3595backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd6…be9dbacked No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 76c | 199.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3946…7ababacked No | 17c | 191.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b5…6294backed No | 22c | 183.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…ea3fbacked No | 18c | 174.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb4…abe5backed No | 22c | 170.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…661abacked No | 23c | 164.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…e348backed No | 19c | 151.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a70…7057backed No | 21c | 150.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked No | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08a2…8443backed No | 18c | 147.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…90d0backed No | 21c | 146.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…81e6backed No | 15c | 146.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4426…1266backed No | 18c | 143.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…573fbacked No | 18c | 139.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…f003backed No | 33c | 137.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc7…2229backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 19c | 124.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked No | 15c | 122$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79d…4350backed No | 18c | 112$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 13c | 111.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2055…4542backed No | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf661…ee46backed No | 16c | 109.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6155…bd6bbacked No | 23c | 109.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 35c | 107.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x89ed…9c12backed No | 19c | 107.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad02…1163backed No | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f1…9793backed No | 20c | 102.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb96…b991backed No | 21c | 102.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef7…1e3dbacked No | 32c | 101.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0453…2ad6backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc91…99c0backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf01…a178backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…5e66backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…3533backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cd…10f4backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Dissent" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Edging" 3+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Feedback" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Mandate" 6+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Possibility" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Stagflation" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Update" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.