Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during October press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x719150d07714e4fa319a6475d0a2c495655c5427193c280096c0a5509994688e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 17c | 2,921$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.78 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,544$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -91%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 16c | 1,962$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.23 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 27c | 1,733$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.63 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 21c | 1,581$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.41 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373f…1878backed No | 74c | 1,345$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 17c | 1,290$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.28 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8768…dd9bbacked No | 78c | 1,210$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,160$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.85 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 77c | 1,019$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.96 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c95…0ae2backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 22c | 900$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x06df…3b05backed No | 76c | 866.8$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5763…1c22backed No | 74c | 683.63$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Yes | 6c | 647.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 5c | 617.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 75c | 580$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 20c | 519.43$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.41 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 8c | 512.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe180…889bbacked Yes | 26c | 509.53$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…409fbacked Yes | 18c | 499.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…28a1backed Yes | 3c | 429.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 26c | 381.52$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.19 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x560d…a298backed No | 78c | 362.19$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x675a…0551backed Yes | 19c | 362.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec4e…d9dbbacked Yes | 28c | 351.9$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 29c | 350.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 19c | 348.37$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.46 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…7805backed No | 74c | 337.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429d…78b2backed Yes | 27c | 321.51$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4d…1a55backed Yes | 26c | 319.58$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccb…e4eabacked Yes | 29c | 316.42$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39a4…1ba5backed No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 24c | 291.58$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked No | 76c | 271.03$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe51…c0d3backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700c…9368backed Yes | 19c | 256.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00be…5acabacked No | 74c | 250$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50df…1f07backed No | 80c | 249.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6af6…296ebacked No | 79c | 240.51$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309b…3df5backed No | 74c | 238.44$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb422…c315backed No | 79c | 233.69$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 20c | 213.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb4…abe5backed Yes | 9c | 206.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed No | 72c | 204.16$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30aa…2bddbacked Yes | 26c | 199.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed No | 75c | 151.69$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…a8f6backed No | 74c | 148.45$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x569d…84b3backed Yes | 24c | 140.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 26c | 139.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes | 22c | 139.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa82c…620abacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…38b2backed No | 78c | 128.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e54…0dc0backed No | 78c | 128.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…e7d8backed No | 78c | 128.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…bf19backed Yes | 20c | 119.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…66b6backed Yes | 19c | 117.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…92dabacked Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 25c | 106.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…f6a0backed Yes | 24c | 105.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…8529backed Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df9…ee98backed No | 75c | 102.45$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…ea3fbacked Yes | 29c | 101.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2907…c1eebacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9a…8ecebacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x660e…6cd4backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543c…edabbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…2e0dbacked No | 76c | 95.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…138bbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…ceffbacked Yes | 25c | 79.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 15c | 75.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 23c | 74.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x517a…6491backed Yes | 28c | 70.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -81%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932f…aeb6backed Yes | 31c | 65.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…e348backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3946…7ababacked Yes | 19c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…df4ebacked Yes | 21c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…f4f4backed No | 78c | 54.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…67ccbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37f4…8697backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8d…e200backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe737…64c1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6c…b3d2backed No | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x439e…f15dbacked No | 73c | 48.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked No | 73c | 41.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…26dfbacked No | 76c | 40.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x175e…e083backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a70…3fc8backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…d4b5backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked No | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…88e5backed No | 77c | 39.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…37f0backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…31a4backed No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 74cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f61…c5cbbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8aaebacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during October press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Dissent" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Edging" 3+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Feedback" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Mandate" 6+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Possibility" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Stagflation" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Update" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.